NFL futures betting offers several ways to find value before the regular season begins, from division winners and conference champions to season win totals and player props. Betting splits provide another layer of information by showing where both the betting public and larger wagers are landing, helping identify which futures are drawing the most interest.
Below are the best AFC West bets for the 2026 NFL season, complete with current odds, DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits, why each market is attracting action and my analysis on every wager.
AFC West Best Bets and Betting Splits
| Bet | Odds | Bets % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos to Win the AFC West | +225 | 34% | 40% |
| Chargers to Make the Playoffs | -168 | N/A | N/A |
| Raiders Over 5.5 Wins | -146 | 73% | 91% |
| Fernando Mendoza Under 12.5 Passing TDs | -110 | 4% | 43% |
| Patrick Mahomes to Win Comeback Player of the Year | +185 | 22% | 38% |
Best AFC West Division Bet
Broncos to Win the AFC West (+225)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 34% |
| Handle | 40% |
Why bettors are backing the Broncos
Denver snapped an eight-year playoff drought in 2024, then came one win shy of a Super Bowl appearance when Bo Nix got hurt in 2025. Sean Payton, who is entering his third season in charge of the Broncos, has made the postseason in 11 of his 18 seasons as a head coach. He has never finished with fewer than seven wins, effectively putting his teams in playoff contention every single year dating back to 2006. Eight of his 11 playoff berths have coincided with division titles, too, including last year’s. Denver is sitting at +225 to repeat as AFC West champions, which is good for third behind both the Chiefs and Chargers. However, the Broncos actually account for 34% of the bets to win the AFC West, narrowly outpacing the Chiefs and Chargers’ respective 32%. And in terms of the total handle, Denver leads the pack at 40%, signifying a sharp lean in their favor.
Analysis
We are entering Year 3 of Sean Payton and Bo Nix, not to mention all the other returning skill position players. Denver also went out and added Jaylen Waddle to supplement Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, Marvin Mims Jr., Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Evan Engram, J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. They also bring back most key contributors from their defense, even using their top draft pick on Tyler Onyedim to make up for lineman John Franklin-Myers leaving in free agency. Considering that unit held opponents to the third-fewest points per game last season, it’s easy to see them being elite again in 2026. Going against a Chargers squad that hasn’t won a division crown since 2009 and a Chiefs team that showed signs of age and injury in 2025, the Broncos should be in the driver’s seat once again in 2026.
Best AFC West Playoff Future
Chargers to Make the Playoffs (-168)
| Betting Splits | Ranking |
|---|---|
| Bets | 11th |
| Handle | 18th |
Why bettors are backing the Chargers
The Chargers rank around the middle of the pack in terms of both bets and handle when it comes to making the playoffs. They are slightly above average with the 11th-most Make the Playoff bets and rank slightly below average with the 18th-most handle in that market. What is worth noting, however, is that they account for the third-fewest bets to miss the playoffs, as well as the smallest handle in that market. Basically, very few people and even fewer sharp bettors are banking on Los Angeles to miss the playoffs.
Analysis
Los Angeles went 11-6 in each of Jim Harbaugh’s first two seasons at the helm, earning a Wild Card berth both times. Dating back to Harbaugh’s time in charge of the 49ers, he has led his team to the playoffs in five of six opportunities. The Chargers also enter this campaign in a much healthier position than they were in last year, in which they thrived despite their offensive line issues. Pro Football Focus ranked their O-line 30th out of 32 units in the NFL, with Joe Alt missing 11 games and Rashawn Slater missing all 17. Their respective returns – plus the arrival of offensive guru Mike McDaniel at coordinator – could vault Justin Herbert into the league’s top tier of quarterbacks. Omarion Hampton might break out as well, if first round pick Jake Slaughter can replace the retired Bradley Bozeman and injured Tyler Biadasz at center. The Chargers have boasted a top-10 scoring defense in both of Harbaugh’s seasons, too, so there’s reason to believe they can weather the losses of Da’Shawn Hand and Otito Ogbonnia up front.
Best AFC West Win Total Bet
Raiders Over 5.5 Wins (-146)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 73% |
| Handle | 91% |
Why bettors are taking the over
The majority of bettors are putting their money on the Raiders to win at least six games, despite the fact that they won just four games in 2024 and three in 2025. But with Antonio Pierce and Pete Carroll gone and reigning Super Bowl champion offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now in charge, things could be different in Vegas. On top of the general public support, there is a pretty substantial sharp lean in the Raiders’ favor. 91% of the handle is on the Raiders to clear 5.5 wins, which is about as close to universal support as you can get from a total money perspective.
Analysis
Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza may be at polar opposite ends of their careers, but their arrivals are reason for confidence in Las Vegas. The top rookie and seasoned veteran should fit nice into Kubiak’s system, which brought Sam Darnold back from the dead in Seattle. Although they may not have the weapons to cobble together an elite offense, the Raiders have Kolton Miller returning at left tackle and Tyler Linderbaum entering the fray at center. That should give them an O-line that PFF ranks higher than No. 32, like they did last season, beyond Kubiak’s offense traditionally minimizing talent deficiencies up front. The Raiders have the Browns, Cardinals and Titans on the schedule after Thanksgiving, at which point the team will probably have come into its own. Games against the Jets, Saints and Dolphins look winnable as well, to say nothing of any potential upsets. Keep an eye on Week 18 against the Chiefs, when Kansas City may have already locked up their playoff seeding.
Best AFC West Player Prop Bet
Fernando Mendoza Under 12.5 Passing TDs (-110)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 4% |
| Handle | 43% |
Why bettors are backing the under
There isn’t widespread support in Fernando Mendoza coming in under 12.5 passing touchdowns, with only 4% of the bets in that market coming in on that side of the line. There is a massive sharp lean, however, with 43% of the handle on the under. So while the public as a whole is getting swept up in the hype for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the people putting more money behind their bets aren’t quite as convinced.
Analysis
While there is reason to believe the Raiders will take a leap forward in 2026, their new franchise quarterback might not have a lot to do with it. Cousins, who is freshly 38 years old, started 14 games in 2024 and appeared in 10 in 2025. He led Atlanta to a 12-10 record when he started, despite all of that coming after his 2023 Achilles surgery. Cousins posted an unimpressive 87.2 passer rating during his time with the Falcons, a noticeable decline from his 99.9 mark between 2015 and 2023, but he was still a steady enough veteran presence to start over Michael Penix Jr. when healthy. Based on the start of training camp and the preseason, the starting job in Las Vegas belongs to Cousins. The Raiders also have a pretty tough schedule through their Week 13 bye, which would make installing Mendoza particularly difficult. I think the rookie sees the field in 2026, but not in any serious capacity until the final five games. So unless Cousins gets hurt, Mendoza probably won’t have much of a chance to stuff the stat sheet this season.
Best AFC West Award Bet
Patrick Mahomes to Win Comeback Player of the Year (+185)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 22% |
| Handle | 38% |
Why bettors are backing Mahomes
Mahomes has the shortest odds to win Comeback Player of the Year by a pretty wide margin, with his +185 odds sitting pretty high above Jayden Daniels’ +450 and Kyler Murray’s +600. So it isn’t much of a surprise that Mahomes accounts for a market-high 22% of the bets – twice as many bets as Murray in second. There is a sharp lean towards Mahomes, too, since he is drawing 38% of the handle.
Analysis
This is Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about. Prior to 2025, he had placed top-seven in MVP voting in five the previous seven seasons. He is coming off the worst campaign of his career – he recorded just six wins, 22 touchdowns, 3,587 yards and an 89.6 passing rating – as well as a torn ACL in December. If Mahomes can guide Kansas City back to the playoffs and just come close to the 13 wins, 4,581 yards and 35 touchdowns he was averaging between 2018 and 2024, that should be enough for him to take home some hardware. When it comes to direct competition, I like Mahomes to reemerge rather than more slight, injury-prone hopefuls like Daniels and Murray. Aaron Donald unretiring is still a question mark, too, as is his potential impact should he rejoin the Rams after all. The narrative is also on Mahomes’ side, plus the fact that quarterbacks won the award seven straight years from 2018 to 2024. Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow have all won CPOTY in the past 20 years, and it only feels fitting for Mahomes to join that club.
AFC West Bets FAQ
What are the best AFC West bets for the 2026 NFL season?
The featured AFC West bets include Broncos to win the AFC West, Chargers to Make the Playoffs, Raiders over 5.5 wins, Fernando Mendoza under 12.5 Passing TD and Patrick Mahomes to Win Comeback Player of the Year.
What are NFL betting splits?
Betting splits show the percentage of tickets (bets) and money (handle) placed on each side of a wager. Comparing the two can provide insight into whether a market is being driven primarily by public bettors or larger wagers.
How should betting splits be used?
Betting splits should be one factor among many when evaluating a wager. They can help identify popular sides or where larger amounts of money are being wagered, but they should be combined with matchup analysis, injuries and market movement before placing a bet.
When do NFL futures bets close?
Most NFL futures markets remain open until the affected team’s first regular-season game, although odds and availability can change throughout the preseason.
