A walk-off homer off the bat of Jake Rogers gave the White Sox their 67th win of the season on Friday. Now, Chicago will look to keep rolling this evening against the last place Mets (58-71). New York, despite its subpar record, has won five of its last seven games. Can the visitors pull off an upset tonight in the Windy City?
The White Sox are favorites (-111) over the Mets; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s interleague showdown between New York and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. White Sox pick, best bet today
- Mets ML (+103): Despite Castillo’s name value, Scott is the superior arm on the mound this evening. A knack for generating strikeouts sets him up for success vs. Chicago tonight. A slightly improved offense makes the Mets a potential steal at these odds.
Mets vs. White Sox prediction, preview
New York’s pitching has been a weakness all season. With that being said, tonight’s starter is no pushover. Christian Scott isn’t an ace, but he’s been a rare bright spot in this rotation. Over 84.2 innings (18 starts), he’s notched a 3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 105 strikeouts (11.2 K/9). As the numbers prove, the right-hander is a bit of a mixed bag. Despite a propensity for handing out walks (3.7 BB/9), his stuff generates plenty of Ks. Scott’s 28.6% strikeout rate places him within the 86th percentile among qualified starters.
New York’s hurler will need to be on point tonight at Rate Field. The White Sox have been carried all season by one of baseball’s best lineups. They rank seventh in runs scored (611), third in homers (171) and 11th in OPS (.726). Munetaka Murakami (143 wRC+) generates most of the headlines, and for good reason. Still, it helps to have bats such as Miguel Vargas (135 wRC+) and Sam Antonacci (118 wRC+) as support. With that being said, the South Siders are prone to swinging and missing at the plate. They’re averaging 9.09 strikeouts per game, sixth-most in the majors.
Chicago will hand the ball to trade deadline acquisition Luis Castillo. The former All-Star has looked like a shell of his former self in 2026. Through 115.1 innings of work, split between the White Sox and Mariners, he owns a mediocre 4.99 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. A look under the hood doesn’t inspire much confidence either. The 33-year-old sits below the 20th percentile in xERA (4.85), xBA (.267), average exit velocity (90.0 MPH) and barrel rate (9.9%).
New York’s offense has struggled for most of the season, and comes into this one missing Juan Soto (calf). Still, the past few weeks have been noticeably better for this lineup. Since the start of August, they rank 14th in runs per game (4.44). It’s worth noting that the issue hasn’t been making quality contact. The Mets are eighth in barrel rate (8.6%) and third in hard-hit rate (41.2%). That doesn’t always lead to results, but it’s not as if Castillo generates many punch outs. To boot, New York has smacked the league’s tenth-most homers (156). Chicago’s starting pitcher has a mediocre 1.5 HR/9 ratio this season.
Best Bet: Mets ML (+103)
This Mets lineup isn’t great, but Francisco Lindor and company are capable of doing some damage against Castillo tonight. In comparison, Scott’s strikeout-heavy approach offers far more upside. The White Sox, for all their homers, are free swingers at the plate. As plus money underdogs, New York offers more value on Saturday.
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