A potential NLCS preview is on tap today in Milwaukee. The Brewers (80-49) are formidable, wielding the best record in all of baseball. That’s not going to intimidate a battle-tested Braves (75-54) squad. Atlanta will need to start racking up wins if it wants to earn a postseason bye in October. Which of these contenders will come out on top this afternoon at American Family Field?
The Brewers are favorites (-158) over the Braves; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s matchup between Atlanta and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Brewers pick, best bet today
- Braves vs. Brewers under 7.5 runs (-110): Perez has been stellar as of late, and Milwaukee struggles against left-handed pitchers. On the other side, Henderson’s command of the strike zone could keep Atlanta’s power-happy hitters off balance. Don’t expect much scoring this afternoon.
Braves vs. Brewers prediction, preview
Martin Perez isn’t quite a game-changer at this point in his career. However, he remains a solid piece in this Atlanta rotation. Through 111.1 innings (20 starts), he’s notched a 3.15 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 83 strikeouts (6.7 K/9). The crafty lefty has allowed just four earned runs over his last 21.0 frames (1.71 ERA). Perez’s best trait is keeping the ball from elevating; he owns an 85th percentile barrel rate (5.2%) and 77th percentile ground ball rate (48.0%). Unsurprisingly, the 35-year-old has delivered a stellar 0.9 HR/9 ratio.
With that being said, today’s matchup isn’t the easiest on paper. Milwaukee ranks among the league’s top lineups, ranking fifth in runs (644), fourth in batting average (.253) and tied for first in on-base percentage (.337). Seven different players on the active roster (min. 200 plate appearances) have a wRC+ of 100 or greater this season. However, this offense prefers to string together singles instead of crushing dingers. The Brewers have slugged an MLB-worst 119 home runs. As previously mentioned, Perez is one of baseball’s best at limiting the long ball. When these teams met on June 19th, the veteran held Milwaukee to one run over six innings pitched. The Brewers have the tenth-worst OPS against left-handed pitching (.694).
It’s a battle between experience and youth this afternoon. The Brewers will hand the ball to youngster Logan Henderson on Saturday. Over 63.1 innings (12 starts), he’s recorded a 2.70 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 75 strikeouts (10.7 K/9). The rookie has been even more effective at home (2.42 ERA). For a relatively inexperienced arm, Henderson has been remarkably consistent. The 24-year-old has given up three earned runs or less in each of his games this season. The right-hander’s best trait is elite command; Henderson owns a minuscule 1.7 BB/9 ratio.
Atlanta’s lineup, much like Milwaukee, ranks as one of the league’s best. However, this offense takes a more modern approach at the plate. They’re eighth in runs scored (609), sixth in homers (167) and fifth in slugging percentage (.412). If there’s an Achilles heel here, it’s a lack of plate discipline. The Braves are only generating 2.91 walks per game, third-fewest in the majors. To boot, Atlanta has been far less effective away from home; the team is averaging just 4.44 runs per game on the road. That’s only good enough for 18th-best in the big leagues.
Best Bet: Braves vs. Brewers under 7.5 runs (-110)
At pitcher-friendly American Family Field, both arms come into this one in a good spot. Perez, a crafty veteran, has proven he can keep this Brewers offense at bay. In comparison, Henderson’s knack for preventing walks should prove beneficial against a Braves team that doesn’t work the count. It’s shaping up to be a low-scoring affair this afternoon in Milwaukee.
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