Despite their placement atop the AL East, things haven’t been going great for the Rays (76-51). Tampa Bay has dropped five of its last seven contests, cutting its division lead to 4.0 games over the Yankees. On the flip side, it’s put up or shut up time for the Orioles (61-67). After surging into the American League’s final wild card spot, Baltimore got swept at home by New York this week. Can the O’s bounce back on Friday against a formidable foe?
The Orioles are favorites (-124) over the Rays; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s contest between Tampa Bay and Baltimore on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Orioles pick, best bet today
- Orioles ML (-124): Despite his reputation as a _-time All-Star, Peralta has been terrible this season. A disciplined Baltimore offense should make the veteran work this evening. On the other side, Rogers has looked like an ace over the past two months. Against a Rays team he’s beaten before, I like the lefty tonight at home.
Rays vs. Orioles prediction, preview
It’s important to note that the Orioles took three of four from the Rays on the road last weekend. Tonight’s starter, Freddy Peralta, did a decent job against the O’s. On August 16th, he tossed 4.2 innings of two-run ball, albeit in a losing effort. Still, it’s difficult to get too excited over the right-hander’s performance. After all, he’s been one of baseball’s most disappointing pitchers in 2026. Through 128.0 innings of work, split between Tampa Bay and the Mets, Peralta owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. A glance at the veteran’s Savant page doesn’t inspire much confidence, either. He ranks within the 50th percentile or lower among qualified starters in most advanced metrics.
Tonight’s game isn’t the most intimidating matchup for Tampa Bay’s newest hurler. However, it’s no walk in the park either. The Orioles rank 15th in runs scored (574) and ninth in home runs (155), led by first baseman Pete Alonso. This month, the slugger has notched a .373/.440/.672 slash line to go with six home runs. It’s also worth mentioning that the O’s are averaging an American League-best 3.82 walks per game. Peralta has struggled at times this season with his command (3.7 BB/9). In addition, he’s produced a career-worst 1.4 HR/9 ratio.
The headliner tonight for Baltimore is Trevor Rogers. After a breakout second half in 2025, the southpaw looked off during the first few months of this season. However, he’s rebounded nicely as of late. Over 13 starts since June 1st, he’s accounted for a 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 70 strikeouts (8.2 K/9). That includes his most recent outing: a six-inning, two-run gem against Tampa Bay. Rogers’ two most used off-speed pitches are the changeup (22%) and sweeper (13%). Against those offerings, Rays hitters have only managed to generate a .279 on-base percentage.
At their best, the Rays rank among the better lineups in baseball. After all, this group is 11th in runs scored (579), first in batting average (.261) and sixth in OPS (.737). With that being said, it’s a top-heavy offense. Junior Caminero (145 wRC+), Yandy Diaz (138 wRC+) and Jonathan Aranda (122 wRC+) form a lethal trio. New acquisition Liam Hicks (161 wRC+) has been effective as well. Outside of those four, only one other player (minimum 200 plate appearances) has a wRC+ above 100. Tampa Bay has a .683 OPS against left-handed pitching, fifth-worst in the majors.
Best Bet: Orioles ML (-124)
It’s a little strange to see the AL-best Rays come into this one as underdogs. Upon closer inspection, this line makes sense. Rogers has been a much better pitcher than Peralta this summer. The latter’s knack for putting runners on base could hurt tonight against a patient Orioles offense. Tampa Bay, while respectable at the plate, depends heavily on a handful of big bats. At home, I like Baltimore’s chances this evening.
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