Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s full slate: Miguel Vargas, Travis Bazzana and Josh Bell.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | +329 | Vargas enters tonight’s series against the Mets with 28 home runs and a .247 ISO. He’s also got a 56.1% hard hit rate versus southpaws, which has translated to a .938 OPS and a 157 wRC+ within the split. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea has surrendered multiple home runs in four of his last eight outings. |
| Travis Bazzana | +414 | The former first-overall pick is having a decent rookie campaign, particularly against RHPs, as he owns a 120 wRC+ within the split. The righty he’ll see on Friday? Tanner Gordon. The right-hander has allowed the 100 LHBs he’s faced at Coors to slash .326/.350/.726 with nine homers. Need I say more? |
| Josh Bell | +485 | Bell has been on fire in August, slashing .361/.435/.607 with a 193 wRC+ in his 70 plate appearances. That includes smashing his 17th home run of the season on Tuesday versus the Braves. Now he’ll hunt down No. 18 in a matchup with Randy Vasquez, who possesses a second percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.4) and an eighth percentile opponent barrel rate (10.6%). |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Miguel Vargas 1+ Home Run (+329)
If you had to boil down the White Sox’s surprising success to a single player — it might just be Vargas. The 26-year-old is in the midst of his true breakout season, entering tonight’s series against the Mets with 28 home runs and a .247 ISO. Vargas has hit everyone he’s faced in 2026, but he’s been especially fantastic when opposed by an LHP. In fact, Vargas sports a .938 OPS and a 157 wRC+ within the split, numbers which are completely supported by an eye-popping 56.1% hard hit rate versus southpaws. It’s all enough to likely strike fear into the heart of Sean Manaea, who is starting this tilt for New York. Manaea’s surrendered multiple home runs in four of his last eight outings, and 1.48 per nine to opposing RHBs for the season as a whole. He can be had.
Travis Bazzana 1+ Home Run (+414)
Selecting the right Guardians player to go deep at Coors Field tonight is harder than you might think. Chase DeLauter (+367) is sort of the ideal person to back in a vacuum, but the rookie has missed the past three games with a hamstring issue. Then there’s Jose Ramirez (+359), who has not hit a long ball since all the way back on June 6. Not great! With all that in mind, let’s focus on Bazzana. The former first-overall pick is having a decent rookie campaign, particularly against RHPs, as he owns a 120 wRC+ within the split. The righty he’ll see on Friday? Tanner Gordon. The 28-year-old is yet another struggling Colorado pitcher. Gordon has conceded a first percentile opponent average exit velocity in 2026 (91.6), which has translated to a 7.82 ERA in the altitude. Specific to lefties like Bazzana, Gordon’s allowed the 100 LHBs he’s faced at Coors to slash .326/.350/.726 with nine homers.
Josh Bell 1+ Home Run (+485)
The Twins are currently in the AL’s final Wild Card spot and Bell is a huge reason why. The switch-hitting veteran has been on fire in August, slashing .361/.435/.607 with a 193 wRC+ in his 70 plate appearances. That includes smashing his 17th home run of the season on Tuesday versus the Braves. Bell’s the definition of a journeyman, yet if things keep going like they have, he’ll easily eclipse the 20 long ball plateau for the sixth time in his career in 2026. That process will be helped by facing Randy Vasquez, too. The Padres RHP is who he is at this point in his professional life. The book on Vasquez is out, and it tells the story of a man who doesn’t miss bats and struggles with LHBs. Isolating this year by itself, Vasquez possesses a second percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.4) and an eighth percentile opponent barrel rate (10.6%). Sounds about right.
