The wild card race is heating up across the National League. Despite operating as trade deadline sellers, the Cardinals (66-63) are only 2.5 games out of a postseason spot. Taking this weekend’s series against the Phillies (70-58) would certainly give St. Louis a boost. Philadelphia, despite some early season slip-ups, sees itself as a World Series contender. Friday’s contest could prove pivotal for both clubs taking the field this evening. Who has the edge tonight at Citizens Bank Park?
The Phillies are favorites (-210) over the Cardinals; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s contest between St. Louis and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Phillies -1.5 – First 5 Innings (+114): Luzardo has been on a tear, and it’s difficult to see him slipping up at home. On the other side, this Phillies offense is finally starting to come together. Don’t be surprised if Philadelphia jumps out to a commanding lead on Friday.
Cardinals vs. Phillies prediction, preview
As of Friday morning, it’s not certain who the Cardinals will send to the mound first. It’s not exactly opportune timing; this bullpen was worked hard during a four-game series with the Reds. A Triple-A call up before first pitch wouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Regardless of who gets the nod, it’s difficult to put much faith in the man on the mound. St. Louis’ bullpen has a 4.29 ERA, ninth-worst in the majors this season.
Despite possessing plenty of star power, this Phillies offense has disappointed They’re averaging 4.58 runs per game, only good enough for 15th in the big leagues. With that being said, this lineup is beginning to live up to its potential. The club has scored 53 runs over its last ten contests, third-most in baseball during that stretch. It’s no coincidence that Philadelphia has turned things around at the plate following a trade for Luis Arraez. The contact specialist is slashing .288/.304/.439 with his new squad; good, not great, numbers. However, his mere presence adds a much needed on-base threat to this power-laden lineup.
The overwhelming strength of this Phillies squad, at least this season, is pitching. That includes Friday’s starter, Jesus Luzardo. The former Marlins ace has been an absolute force on the mound in 2026. Over 150.1 innings (25 starts), he’s recorded a 3.23 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 185 strikeouts (11.1 K/9). During his last 21.2 frames, the southpaw has allowed just three earned runs (1.25 ERA). A glance at Luzardo’s peripherals is nothing short of impressive. He ranks inside the 80th percentile among qualified starters in almost every advanced metric. That includes xERA (2.87), whiff rate (31.9%) and strikeout rate (29.8%). Another aspect of the 28-year-old’s game is length. Luzardo has gone at least 6.0 innings in 17 of his 25 appearances this season.
Crossing the plate could prove difficult tonight against one of the sport’s premier arms. Granted, this Cardinals offense is dangerous in its own right. They’ve scored 52 runs over their last ten matchups, fourth-best in baseball. It’s none other than Jordan Walker who’s been leading the charge. During this most recent ten-game stretch, the outfielder is slashing .324/.419/.703 with three homers and three steals. Luzardo’s most dangerous weapon is a sweeper, which he’s thrown 38% of the time this season. Against that offering, St. Louis batters have produced a dismal .214/.291/.344 slash line.
Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 – First 5 Innings (+114)
Given St. Louis’ pitching uncertainty, along with Luzardo’s dominance, it’s difficult to fade the Phillies tonight. However, the Fightins enter this one as massive favorites. Keeping that in mind, the easiest way to find value might be backing them early. It wouldn’t be surprising if Philadelphia’s red-hot offense gets going early tonight. With an ace on the mound, this is the best way to back the home team at plus money.
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