For some teams, this stretch of the season is about making every win count in the fight for a playoff place. For the Los Angeles Dodgers, the back-to-back World Series champions, simply getting healthy is the key. In the standings, the Dodgers have started to trend in the right direction, sweeping the Colorado Rockies earlier this week, and they remain in contention for baseball’s best record.
Los Angeles will now hope to sink whatever remains of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ playoff hopes this weekend, as the Pirates trail the final Wild Card spot by 5.5 games.
The opener of the three-game set is scheduled to begin at 10:10 p.m. ET. World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take the mound for the Dodgers, and Pittsburgh will counter with Bubba Chandler.
Let’s break down the day’s final matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
- Under 8 (-106): Although three of Los Angeles’ last five games have gone over the total, those games didn’t feature Yamamoto on the mound. It’s hard for a game to go over eight runs when one starter gives up more than one run only half the time.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto O18.5 Outs Recorded (+117): If Yamamoto racks up more strikeouts than usual against the boom-or-bust Pirates, his pitch count might go up more quickly, but with Tyler Glasnow set to return to the rotation soon, the Dodgers might let him get an extra day of rest.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
The Pirates started off the season in the playoff picture, and they were above .500 even at the All-Star break, but .500 baseball doesn’t cut it in the NL in the way that it does in the AL, and a 13-19 record since the Midsummer Classic has done Pittsburgh in. The Pirates’ offense, which was the league’s second-best before the All-Star break, has fallen to the fourth-worst ever since, and rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin has been out for a month and a half with a hand injury, which certainly hasn’t helped. Esmerlyn Valdéz has also come back to earth a little bit after his exceptional start. Additionally, Pittsburgh just hasn’t had the pitching; both its rotation and bullpen rank just 18th in ERA, and its staff as a whole ranks just 23rd since the All-Star break. 2025 Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes has experienced the first major struggles of his career, and while three of the four relievers the Pirates brought in at the trade deadline have been pretty solid, they still have a losing record throughout the month.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles has floundered as its injuries have stacked up, but “struggle” is relative. The Dodgers suffered a seven-game losing streak shortly after the All-Star break, but they’ve gotten back on track since, winning eight of their last 13. Despite being without both of its primary catchers from last season’s playoff run, Los Angeles has had the 12th-best offense since the Midsummer Classic and the best offense overall, and its established core (Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, and Andy Pages) has helped offset Kyle Tucker’s and Mookie Betts’ struggles. The Dodgers also had some bullpen woes in July, but they’ve stabilized some in August, and the acquisitions of Tarik Skubal and Kris Bubic should help both the rotation and the relief corps in the long-term. Now that Blake Snell is healthy and Tyler Glasnow is expected to rejoin the rotation soon, Los Angeles should be able to stabilize its elite on-paper rotation before the postseason begins.
Chandler hasn’t been great this season, but at least he’s trending in the right direction. The 23-year-old has pitched to a 3.50 ERA across his last 12 starts, giving up more than three earned runs just once across that span, so it’s a promising turn in form after he posted a 5.05 mark in his first 12 starts of the season. Overall, advanced numbers are relatively kind to him; he sports a 50th percentile expected ERA and ranks in the 54th percentile in pitching run value. The flamethrower has done a good job limiting hard contact, ranking in the 78th percentile in barrel rate, and for as mediocre as the Dodgers’ lineup has been recently, they still rank fifth in barrel rate for the season as a whole. However, Chandler has also had poor control, with just an 11th-percentile walk rate, and Los Angeles has drawn among the most free passes for the sixth consecutive season. He doesn’t induce many chases or whiffs to begin with, and the Dodgers combine a patient plate approach with good contact skills. Chandler has performed similarly at home and on the road, but Los Angeles has actually been worse at home.
It shouldn’t matter with Yamamoto on the mound. His greatness has become so normalized that he’s almost flown under the radar this season, but with a 2.60 ERA in 22 starts, he could conceivably be a top-three finisher in Cy Young Award voting again. He has no clear weaknesses, ranking above the median in every single Statcast category, including the 87th in expected ERA. Plus, Yamamoto has fixed the lone issue that dogged him last season, as he ranked in the 38th percentile in walk rate in 2025 and sits in the 86th percentile in that stat so far this season. Pittsburgh isn’t particularly well-suited to take advantage of Yamamoto’s relative weakness, his 55th-percentile whiff rate, as the Pirates have found air at the third-highest clip. He does rank in just the 65th percentile in barrel rate, and Pittsburgh finds the barrel at an above-average rate, but it would be presumptive to suggest the Pirates stand a real chance of putting significant damage on Yamamoto. He’s been slightly less effective at home this season, posting an ERA 1.15 runs higher, but a 3.14 mark is still elite, and Pittsburgh has had a below-average road offense.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 (-106)
Neither of these offenses in great form, and both pitchers enter this matchup hot. The Dodgers are a difficult matchup for any pitcher, but Chandler’s strengths are well-suited to limit them, and they just haven’t been as strong at home.
Strong Lean: Yoshinobu Yamamoto O18.5 Outs Recorded (+117)
Yamamoto has pitched into the seventh inning in 10 of his 22 starts this season, but given how poor the Pirates have been lately on offense, he should be more efficient than normal. Plus, the fewer innings Los Angeles needs to get out of its bullpen, the better.
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