The Tigers (61-66) are in a rut, having dropped five of their last six games. Still, hope springs eternal in the American League. A postseason path remains wide open for Detroit, either by winning the AL Central or a wild card spot. Still, that means taking care of business between now and the end of September. That gives added weight to Friday’s matchup with the last place Royals (55-74). Which of these divisional rivals will come out on top tonight?
The Tigers are favorites (-113) over the Royals; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Detroit and Kansas City on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Royals pick, best bet today
- Tigers ML (-113): Maybe I’m missing something here, but Detroit is the better team wielding a superior pitcher tonight in Melton. With respect to Cameron, the visitors offer value this evening as slight road favorites.
Tigers vs. Royals prediction, preview
Troy Melton will be the man on the mound tonight for Detroit. He’s done his best Tarik Skubal impression this summer, taking on the role of staff ace. Through 84.1 innings (14 starts), the right-hander has posted a 1.49 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 73 strikeouts (7.8 K/9). It’s not a massive sample size, but the 25-year-old already looks like someone the Tigers can build around going forward. Melton has allowed no more than two runs in all but one of his outings this season. Where the youngster specializes is in limiting quality contact. He ranks within the 75th percentile or better in barrel rate (5.2%) and hard-hit rate (34.9%).
This will be Melton’s second meeting of the season with Kansas City. When these clubs met on July 23rd, he tossed five innings of two-run ball at home. A repeat performance against this mediocre offense is more than possible on Friday. The Royals are averaging 4.19 runs per game, ninth-worst in baseball. To make matters worse, slugger Jac Caglianone (ankle) and former All-Star Maikel Garcia (hamstring) are dealing with injuries. While Bobby Witt Jr. is expected to take the field, there isn’t much here in terms of lineup protection. Michael Massey is the only other player on the active roster (min. 100 plate appearances) with a wRC+ above 100. KC also owns the league’s tenth-worst OPS against right-handed pitching (.710).
If the Royals are going to earn an upset, it’ll likely take a strong effort from Noah Cameron. Granted, the southpaw has been a bright spot on an otherwise mediocre rotation. He comes into today’s game sporting a 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 126 strikeouts (8.2 K/9) over 138.1 innings. Those numbers aren’t amazing, but they don’t tell the whole story. Cameron comes into tonight’s game on an absolute heater. During his last five appearances, the left-hander has recorded a minuscule 1.19 ERA. That includes a seven-inning, one-hit masterpiece in Detroit back on July 24th. In fact, he’s allowed just 13 hits over his previous 37.2 innings.
With that being said, it’s not as if these two sides are strangers. Detroit racked up three runs in four innings against Cameron back on May 10th. Surprisingly, Kansas City’s starter has performed much worse at home (5.17 ERA). The Tigers might be baseball’s most underrated lineup, capable of pulling away at any given moment. Since July 1st, this offense ranks third in runs scored (217), sixth in batting average (.255) and fifth in OPS (.749). Kevin McGonigle (131 wRC+) is an AL Rookie of the Year contender, while All-Stars Riley Greene (129 wRC+) and Dillon Dingler (124 wRC+) continue to produce. The former is questionable to play tonight due to hamstring tightness.
Best Bet: Tigers ML (-113)
Detroit, despite its recent cold streak, has been one of the best teams in the majors recently. That’s due in large part to Melton, the man on the mound tonight. Cameron has been terrific as well, but it’s fair to say he’s not the best pitcher in this matchup. What isn’t up for debate is this Tigers lineup compared to Kansas City’s group of hitters. Add it all up, and the visitors are worth heavy consideration on Friday.
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