Two sub-.500 teams are hoping to keep themselves within reach of the postseason tonight. The Nationals (61-67) picked up a crucial 6-0 victory last night. In the top-heavy National League, Washington will need to keep rolling this evening. It’s a similar story for the Rangers (62-65), battling for either the AL West crown or a wild card spot. Which of these clubs will pick up a win on Thursday in Arlington?
The Rangers are favorites (-105) over the Nationals; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s interleague showdown between Washington and Texas on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Rangers pick, best bet today
- Rangers -1.5 (+130): The presence of deGrom alone gives Texas a significant edge tonight. At the plate, the Rangers have performed well against left-handed pitching. That doesn’t bode well for Alvarez and the Nationals this evening.
Nationals vs. Rangers prediction, preview
On a Nationals squad bereft of pitching talent, it’s Andrew Alvarez toeing the slab this evening. He’s been a solid piece for manager Blake Butera, emerging as a rotation mainstay. Over 75.0 innings (ten starts), the southpaw has notched a 3.72 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 69 strikeouts (8.3 K/9). The 27-year-old is one of the sport’s best when it comes to limiting the long ball (0.4 HR/9). However, he’s prone to putting runners on base (4.0 BB/9). Alvarez has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his previous four appearances.
Thursday’s matchup doesn’t appear too intimidating, at least on paper. The Rangers rank 25th in runs (512), 19th in homers (140) and 21st in OPS (.708). A continued absence for third baseman Josh Jung (calf) doesn’t help things either. Texas has only scored 54 runs over its last ten contests, fifth-worst in the majors during that time. However, there’s a decent chance this group can make an impact tonight. The Rangers have a .734 OPS against left-handed pitching, seventh-best in baseball. It’s also worth noting that Washington owns a 4.81 bullpen ERA, fourth-worst in the league.
Texas will counter on the mound with none other than Jacob deGrom. It hasn’t been a banner year for the superstar pitcher, but he remains one of the sport’s best pitchers. Through 120.2 innings of work (23 starts), he’s recorded a 3.95 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 147 strikeouts (11.0 K/9). The two-time Cy Young winner has been far more effective at spacious Globe Life Field (2.95 ERA). Although deGrom has given up his share of hard contact, he’s due for better results going forward. The five-time All-Star ranks within the 89th percentile in fastball velocity (97.3 MPH), chase rate (35.0%), whiff rate (33.4%), strikeout rate (29.5%) and walk rate (6.2%).
Tossing a gem could prove difficult on Thursday, even for a standout arm such as deGrom. The Nationals are a well-oiled machine on offense, scoring an MLB-best 5.28 runs per game. However, those numbers come with a big caveat tonight. Superstar outfielder James Wood (oblique) remains on the injured list. There are still several big bats in this lineup, headlined by infielder CJ Abrams ( wRC+). With that being said, Washington is looking a bit top-heavy at the plate right now. Since August 1st, the Nats only rank 15th in baseball with 74 runs scored.
Best Bet: Rangers -1.5 (+130)
The Nats aren’t quite as dangerous without Wood taking the field. That’s before factoring in deGrom on the mound, who has been an elite arm this season at home. Washington’s Alvarez is a decent hurler, but not insurmountable for the Rangers. Texas has had ample success hitting against left-handed pitching this season. Expect the favorites to pull ahead in this one tonight.
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