We’ve got a six-game slate for Thursday’s MLB action. Afternoon baseball!
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($8,800) — Seymour has been fantastic over the last five starts, posting a 2.45 FIP and 26.7 K-BB%. That’s translated to at least 19.9 FPTS in each contest, with a high of 27.3 FPTS, which was in Coors Field. Now he faces a Blue Jays team that has been punchless against left-handed pitching — last in ISO, wOBA and wRC+, the triple whammy.
Value
Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seattle Mariners ($7,700) — I’m not fond of the price and was seriously considering Shane Bieber down at $6,000. I may still go that route, depending on roster construction. As it stands, though, Gasser is the preferred option, mainly because of the matchup. Seattle ranks 27th in ISO and wRC+ and 29th in wOBA against lefties. In addition, Gasser has been much better at home limiting the long ball. He has also put up at least 15 FPTS in four of his last five turns.
INFIELD
Stud
Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($5,100) — Aranda has posted a 91 mph average exit velocity, a 10.1% barrel rate, and crushes right-handed pitching. He owns a 140 wRC+ and a .178 ISO — while mashing 14 of his 15 home runs — against righties this year. Shane Bieber has a 6.41 FIP and 1.7% K-BB% against lefties. He’s also been much worse on the road, posting a 7.05 FIP and a 0% K-BB%.
Value
Michael Toglia, Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($2,400) — The switch-hitting Toglia has been with the Reds for seven games, and it hasn’t been particularly pretty, with a 38.1% strikeout rate and a .158/.238/.263 slash. That said, he has posted a 92.2 mph average exit velocity, a 73.7 mph bat speed, and a 20.6% chase rate. He hasn’t barreled a ball yet — but it’s only a matter of time before he does, as his career rate is 12%. Toglia is batting fifth or sixth in the order and will face Michael McGreevy, who has allowed a 90 mph average exit velocity and 10.2% barrel rate. Against lefties, the FIP is 4.58 with an 8.2 K-BB%. Twelve of the 18 home runs hit off McGreevy have come off the bat of a lefty.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds ($4,700) — Burleson is having a great year, slashing .289/.354/.493 with a 16.7% strikeout rate and a .204 ISO. He’s produced 21 home runs, 71 runs, an MLB-best 92 RBIs, and three stolen bases in 534 plate appearances. The average exit velocity is 92.1 mph with an 11.6% barrel rate. Against right-handed pitching, he’s smashed 18 of his homers with a massive 171 wRC+ and a .255 ISO. Brady Singer averages only 91.3 mph on his fastball and is saddled with a 5.13 FIP in 125.2 innings. He’s allowed a .304/.360/.512 slash and a 5.29 FIP to lefties while serving up 18 bombs. At home, Singer has posted a 5.56 FIP and a 7.8% K-BB%.
Value
Victor Robles, Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers ($2,400) — Robles has little to no power, as the ISO is .055. He’s fast — ranking in the 82nd percentile in sprint speed — and has swiped eight bags in 140 plate appearances so far this season. I’m not expecting the Mariners to do much against Gasser, especially since Seattle trots out so many left-handed bats, but Robles could scrape together some fantasy goodies. The strikeout rate is only 15.7%, and he’s slashing .295/.319/.364 against left-handed pitching. Robles has tallied 20 or more fantasy points in two of his last three games, thanks in large part to five hits — including a pair of triples — three walks, four RBIs, and three runs scored. So yes, I’m saying there’s a chance.
