Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s teeny tiny evening slate: Yordan Alvarez and Jake Burger.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | +245 | Alvarez only has a single home run to his name in the month of August, but he’s still the same guy that owns 100th percentile marks in expected wOBA (.458) and expected slugging rate (.675). Now he’ll face Grayson Rodriguez, who could bust him out of that slump. Rodriguez sports a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (48.6%) and an eighth percentile opponent barrel rate (10.9%). |
| Jake Burger | +494 | Burger owns a .255 ISO and a 148 wRC+ versus LHPs this season, so it’s not like he has zero possibility of doing damage off the ground ball oriented Andrew Alvarez. However, the main draw here might be Washington’s bullpen. Nationals relievers own the second-highest opponent barrel rate (8.6%) and the second-highest opponent hard hit rate (40.9%) in MLB. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Yordan Alvarez 1+ Home Run (+245)
It feels like a gift to get Alvarez’s odds this high above +200. Yes, the slugger only has a single home run to his name in the month of August, but he’s still the same guy that owns 100th percentile marks in expected wOBA (.458) and expected slugging rate (.675). He’s bound to run into one sooner or later, and there’s a pretty good chance it’s sooner, as Grayson Rodriguez will toe the rubber for the Angels on Thursday night. Rodriguez sports a ghastly 7.17 ERA in his 13 starts for Los Angeles, and the largest red flag is a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (48.6%) — closely followed by an eighth percentile opponent barrel rate (10.9%). Christian Walker (+439) and Jeremy Pena (+539) might be other names to keep an eye on here.
Jake Burger 1+ Home Run (+494)
This is an interesting one. At first glance, Andrew Alvarez isn’t the type of pitcher I usually want to attack in the home run prop market. Look no further than a 50.2% ground ball rate or the fact he’s only surrendering 0.36 opponent home runs per nine across 75.0 innings with the Nationals in 2026. However, what if I told you this wasn’t entirely about Washington’s starter? The Nationals bullpen has been awful this season, conceding the second-highest opponent barrel rate (8.6%) and the second-highest opponent hard hit rate (40.9%) in the sport. If Burger doesn’t go deep off Alvarez, he’ll have his chances against this unstable stable of relievers. Still, it’s probably worth pointing out that Burger owns a .255 ISO and a 148 wRC+ versus LHPs this season. It’s not like he has zero possibility of doing damage off the left-handed Alvarez.
