In an alternate universe, the matchup between the Seattle Mariners and the Milwaukee Brewers could’ve been the World Series, as each team lost its League Championship Series in 2025. They are two of the five teams without a World Series title.
This season, Milwaukee has once again been one of the best teams in baseball, but Seattle is on track to miss the playoffs, taking some juice out of the series. So far, both games have been uncompetitive, with each team delivering a multi-run win.
The rubber match is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. George Kirby is set to pitch for the Mariners, and the Brewers will turn to Robert Gasser.
Let’s break down this series decider with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-128): It would take an extremely uneven starting pitching matchup for me to pick against baseball’s best team at home against a team that has gone just 12-18 since the All-Star break, and Kirby-Gasser just isn’t that.
- George Kirby O17.5 Outs Recorded (+107): Kirby has completed the sixth inning in a majority of his starts, and since Milwaukee is a contact-oriented, grounder-heavy team, he has a chance to get some pretty quick outs. Plus, Seattle used six different pitchers last night, and it won’t have another off day until next Thursday.
Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers prediction, preview
The stunning 22-0 loss that Seattle suffered in the opener is pretty emblematic of its season as a whole. Despite hanging around the fringes of the playoff picture, four games behind the Houston Astros and 2.5 games behind the final Wild Card spot at 60-67, the Mariners’ season has just been a train wreck compared to expectations. They’ve had a bottom-10 offense in baseball, as Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor have somewhat underwhelmed offensively and Cal Raleigh has gone from one of baseball’s best hitters to one of its worst. Seattle has still held onto decent playoff positioning because of its top-10 pitching staff, though; Logan Gilbert, Kirby, Emerson Hancock, and Bryce Miller have all been solid rotational options, and last season’s ace Bryan Woo hasn’t been too far behind. The Mariners’ bullpen has been a below-average unit, with trade deadline acquisition Seranthony Domínguez pitching to an 11.81 ERA in his eight appearances so far, but they’ve had enough reliable options to scrap together results. Seattle shouldn’t suddenly be expected to find the momentum that it has lacked all season, and its 36.2% playoff chances (per FanGraphs) are arguably too high, but it has the pitching pieces to make some strides back towards respectability.
Meanwhile, it’s been business as usual for Milwaukee, which won 97 games last season and is on pace for 99 this season. The Brewers have gone 19-12 since the All-Star break, taking three of four from the Los Angeles Dodgers to open up some daylight in the race for the top overall seed in the NL. While their offense has dipped slightly from the ninth-best before the All-Star break to the 14th-best thereafter, their pitching has been utterly spectacular, as they’ve had the third-best rotation and third-best bullpen, as well as the second-best mark before the Midsummer Classic and the fourth-best mark since. Jacob Misiorowski is a near-guaranteed Cy Young Award winner and plausible MVP, and Kyle Harrison has had quite the breakout. Additionally, no team will want to face a battery of Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill in the playoffs, as Megill has allowed just one run since June 10 and Uribe, currently on the injured list with a forearm flexor strain, hasn’t given up any since June 20. Trade deadline acquisitions Dustin May and Antonio Senzatela haven’t been very good so far, but neither is necessarily guaranteed to be a factor in the playoffs anyway.
Kirby has been mostly solid, but he’s prone to the occasional blow-up. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 23 starts, but he’s also conceded at least four on six separate occasions, including in each of his last two road starts. Advanced numbers back up his baseline profile; he has a solid 59th-percentile expected ERA, with pronounced strengths and weaknesses. He’s been particularly good at generating chases, which could be an asset against the league’s most patient team, and he has a top-decile walk rate, frustrating a Milwaukee lineup that has earned the second-most free passes. However, Kirby has struggled to produce whiffs or strikeouts, where the Brewers rank near the middle of the pack, and he ranks in the 30th percentile in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, which could leave him susceptible to Milwaukee’s powerful bats. Additionally, he’s been more than a full run worse on the road (mostly driven by his two recent starts), and the Brewers have posted an OPS 66 points higher at home.
Thankfully for Kirby, Milwaukee isn’t exactly turning to its best starter. Gasser has registered a 4.54 ERA in 14 starts this season, although he’s posted a 3.33 mark in his last five starts since imploding against the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 12. All in all, he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his 14 starts. Advanced stats suggest he’s a little bit worse than Kirby overall; he has a 41st-percentile expected ERA, and despite what his name implies, he doesn’t throw very hard. He’s struggled to induce chases or whiffs, mitigating two of the Mariners’ biggest weaknesses, but like Kirby, he has exceptional control. Additionally, he’s been excellent at inducing soft contact, with a top-quartile hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, and Seattle hasn’t had a lot of pop this season to begin with. Gasser has also posted an ERA more than two runs lower at home, so he should be effective despite the Mariners’ posting slightly more impressive offensive numbers on the road, especially since Seattle has also struggled against lefties.
Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-128)
The starting pitching matchup is relatively even on a neutral field, but both Kirby’s and Gasser’s home-road splits are pretty extreme, and Milwaukee’s offense is that much better. Plus, the second the starters exit the game, the Brewers’ bullpen should take over.
Strong Lean: George Kirby O17.5 Outs Recorded (+107)
Kirby has completed the sixth inning in 14 of his 23 starts this season, and since he doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff, he can be pretty efficient if his fielders are doing their jobs behind him. For example, in the first game after the All-Star break, he recorded 18 outs on just 80 pitches.
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