The White Sox (66-60) narrowly avoided a sweep yesterday, earning a 3-0 win over the rival Cubs. Now, Chicago will take on another National League contender in the Braves (74-53). This is a makeup game following a pair of contests set back in June. During those games, it was the South Siders who earned two straight victories. Can Atlanta exact some revenge this afternoon on the road?
The Braves are favorites (-105) over the White Sox; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s interleague showdown between Atlanta and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. White Sox pick, best bet today
- White Sox ML (-102): Holmes has been unpredictable, and his repertoire doesn’t match up well with Chicago’s bats. On the other side, Atlanta can struggle against decent lefties. Kay has been terrific on the mound over the past few months. At home, the South Siders are poised to earn a win this afternoon.
Braves vs. White Sox prediction, preview
Grant Holmes will get the nod on Thursday for Atlanta. All things considered, it’s been a solid season from the right-hander. He comes into this one sporting a 3.82 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 97 strikeouts (7.4 K/9) over 117.2 innings pitched. With that being said, it’s fair to say the 30-year-old has gotten somewhat lucky so far. A look at Holmes’ peripherals reveals some troubling numbers. He ranks below the 40th percentile in almost every notable advanced metric. That includes xERA (4.82), strikeout rate (19.1%) walk rate (10.1%) and hard-hit rate (43.0%). During his most recent outing, the veteran surrendered six runs in 3.2 innings vs. Arizona.
Bouncing back could prove difficult this afternoon for Holmes. The White Sox depend on their offense, among the league’s best. They rank eighth in runs scored (605), fourth in home runs (167) and eighth in OPS (.730). Chicago has scored 53 runs over its last ten contests, tied with Philadelphia for fourth-most in baseball during that time. Several talented sluggers, led by rookie Munetaka Murakami (148 wRC+), make this a difficult lineup for opposing pitchers.
Holmes’ most-used pitch is the slider (36%). After that, he throws some variation of a fastball 50% of the time: the four-seamer, sinker or cutter. The righty typically tops out at around 94 MPH. Against those three pitches, at that speed or slower, White Sox batters are slashing .283/.384/.509 this season.
Anthony Kay has been an unlikely source of stability in Chicago’s rotation. The 31-year-old made his return to the US in 2026 following two straight seasons in Japan. So far, so good for the southpaw. He comes into today’s game with a 4.01 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 98 strikeouts (7.3 K/9) over 121.1 innings. Over his last eight games, the veteran has notched a stellar 3.37 ERA. Kay has also been a much better pitcher at home (3.22 ERA) than on the road (4.89 ERA).
Chicago isn’t the only club with some big bats taking the field. The Braves are an offensive juggernaut in their own right; they’re seventh in runs scored (606) and fourth in homers (167). All-Stars such as Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Michael Harris Jr. make this group one of the sport’s most intimidating units. However, they’ve averaged significantly more runs at home (5.00) than on the road (4.53). It’s also worth noting that the team performs worse against southpaws. Atlanta has a .687 OPS against left-handed pitching on the road, only good enough for 15th in the majors.
Best Bet: White Sox ML (-102)
In a game with near-even odds, I’m leaning towards the home team. After all, Kay has been one of the American League’s better hurlers since the start of July. In comparison, Holmes’ fastball-heavy approach could backfire against a powerful White Sox lineup. As slight underdogs, consider backing Chicago on Thursday afternoon.
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