It was the Yankees (70-55) who came out on top last night, eking out a 3-1 victory at Camden Yards. Still five games back of Tampa Bay for the AL East lead, New York has plenty of work to do between now and October. Ditto for the Orioles (61-65), who somehow remain just one game out of a playoff spot. Can Baltimore even up this series tonight at home?
The Yankees are favorites (-116) over the Orioles; the over/under is set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between New York and Baltimore on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Orioles pick, best bet today
- Orioles ML (+108): Bassitt, for all his struggles, has been an above-average pitcher at home. In comparison, Warren’s starts have been nothing short of a coin flip in recent weeks. Baltimore’s offense, while middling, provides far more stability than New York’s. Keeping that in mind, the home team makes sense for a wager tonight at plus money.
Yankees vs. Orioles prediction, preview
Will Warren will get the nod this evening for the Pinstripes. It’s been an up and down 2026 for the third-year pro. Despite the occasional flash of greatness, he’s been plagued by a knack for putting runners on. Through 118.0 innings of work (23 starts), the right-hander has produced a 4.42 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 117 strikeouts (8.9 K/9). Still, there’s undeniable upside here. We’ve seen Warren stifle quality lineups before, such as the Cubs and Nationals. The ground ball specialist will attempt to stifle a decent, albeit unspectacular, Baltimore offense tonight.
Speaking of the home team, Tuesday’s game saw the Orioles hit a speed bump at the plate. The club has scored 53 runs over its last ten contests, sixth-most in the majors during that time. That includes taking three of four from the AL-best Rays over the weekend. Pete Alonso has been on an absolute tear, slashing .500/.578/.947 with five homers over that stretch. Still, it’s fair to wonder about the rest of this lineup heading into tonight’s matchup. Warren has only allowed three earned runs over 12.0 innings against Baltimore this season (2.25 ERA).
The Orioles will hand the ball tonight to Chris Bassitt. It’s been a difficult season for the veteran, who hasn’t found much consistency in 2026. Over 61.2 innings (11 starts), he’s accounted for a 5.11 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 40 strikeouts (5.8 K/9). With that being said, he’s been far better when pitching at home (3.08 ERA). In addition, Bassitt remains one of the sport’s best when it comes to limiting hard contact. His 97th percentile barrel rate (4.2%) and 72nd percentile hard-hit rate (46.7%) can keep opposing sluggers at bay.
This is a spot Bassitt has done well in before. Over nine career meetings with the Yankees, he’s put up a 2.06 ERA. This year’s edition of the Bronx Bombers doesn’t inspire much confidence at the plate. Only two clubs, the Angels and Mariners, have scored less runs since July 1st. During that time, New York ranks 27th in the majors with a .660 OPS against right-handed pitching. Outside of Trent Grisham (108 wRC+) and rookie George Lombard Jr. (138 wRC+), nobody is lighting it up at the plate right now for the visitors.
Best Bet: Orioles ML (+108)
Upon closer inspection, there isn’t much difference between Warren and Bassitt going into this one. The former is a better hurler, but the latter has pitched well at spacious Camden Yards. New York’s offense, in spite of its pitching, has been a mess. That’s especially true against right-handers. Look for Alonso and the O’s to get back on track tonight against a beatable opponent.
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