St. Louis enters Wednesday at 65-62 after winning two of this series’ first three games. The Cardinals have taken six of eight while moving to 4-2 during their 11-game road trip. Cincinnati sits 60-66 overall and 31-35 at Great American Ball Park following Tuesday’s 3-0 defeat. The Reds have scored 28 runs across 10 games, batting .184/.247/.301 with 95 strikeouts. They have scored one run or fewer six times during that span and suffered 12 shutout losses. St. Louis has produced 50 runs, 11 homers, and a .743 OPS across its past 10 games. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals.
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Reds vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
Chase Burns has delivered a 14-2 record, 2.47 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 151 strikeouts across 131 innings. His 10.37 strikeouts per nine lead an arsenal built around a 97.7-mph four-seamer and vicious 90.2-mph slider. Burns throws those pitches 56.4% and 38.4% of the time, respectively. The slider owns a .144 average, .201 wOBA, 51.4% whiff rate, and 47% strikeout rate. Matthew Liberatore enters with a 5-10 record, 5.07 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 20 homers allowed. He has recorded 116 strikeouts against 44 walks across 119 innings. Cincinnati owns a .239/.327/.414 line against lefties, while St. Louis has batted .242/.315/.380 against righties.
Liberatore’s underlying contact numbers offer Cincinnati a clearer scoring path than its recent production suggests. Opponents have generated a .337 expected wOBA, 90.2 mph exit velocity, and 41.5% hard-hit rate. His four-seamer has allowed a .450 slugging percentage while missing only 12.4% of opposing swings. The sinker has surrendered a .392 average, .569 slugging percentage, and 56.8% hard contact. His changeup has yielded a .348 average, leaving three fastball-speed bands vulnerable when his slider command slips. Liberatore owns a 5.33 ERA across five starts, allowing 29 hits and three homers over 25⅓ innings. He has also permitted two earned runs across 11⅓ innings during his two sharpest recent outings.
Cincinnati’s current lineup has consistently failed to punish hittable pitching. The Reds carry a league-worst 87 wRC+, with a .226/.305/.391 season line and 25.4% strikeout rate. Elly De La Cruz owns a 93.9-mph average exit velocity, 51.5% hard-hit rate, and 13.6% barrel rate. He has batted .105/.186/.132 across 10 games, recording four hits and zero homers. Sal Stewart has supplied the steadier production, batting .258/.333/.471 with 26 homers and 91 RBIs. Eugenio Suárez has homered twice with seven RBIs recently, although his season average remains .208. JJ Bleday, Matt McLain, and TJ Friedl have offered little consistent traffic around Cincinnati’s three viable power threats.
Cardinals vs. Reds pick, best bet
St. Louis can challenge Burns with left-handed patience and two hitters producing authoritative contact. Lefties own a .676 OPS against Burns, compared with a .500 mark from righties. They have drawn 37 walks and hit 11 homers across 79 innings against him. Alec Burleson has batted .359/.419/.718 across 10 games, generating three homers, 15 RBIs, and 10 runs. His season includes a .289/.354/.493 line, 21 homers, 92 RBIs, and a 49.6% hard-hit rate. Jordan Walker has hit .351/.415/.568 recently and owns a 92.6-mph average exit velocity. Burns has nevertheless allowed seven earned runs across his last 28⅓ innings, with 33 strikeouts and one homer surrendered.
Cincinnati’s bullpen offers reasonable protection if Burns works six innings. Emilio Pagán and Brock Burke were rested Tuesday, while Zach Maxwell absorbed 2⅔ lower-leverage innings. St. Louis owns a 4.21 bullpen ERA, although its relievers have posted a 2.10 mark during the past week. Riley O’Brien and Ryan Stanek have appeared on consecutive days, creating some vulnerability if Liberatore exits early. The forecast calls for 75 degrees, minimal wind, and only modest rain risk. Great American Ball Park favors power, although the nearly still air limits its usual home-run amplification. Both clubs worked through Monday’s doubleheader, making another extended bullpen game less attractive for either manager.
Burns should suppress St. Louis through six innings, especially against its right-handed power. Cincinnati can damage Liberatore, yet its .548 recent OPS makes sustained rallies difficult to trust. A solo homer or two cannot threaten this total without improved on-base production elsewhere. The rested Cincinnati bullpen strengthens Burns’ protection, while St. Louis has allowed only 23 runs across 10 games. Under 8.5 survives a solid Reds performance and several plausible Liberatore outcomes. Cincinnati’s current strikeout burden should keep its scoring below the level required for an over.
Best bet: Under 8.5 (−114) Playable to: −120
Projected score: Reds 4, Cardinals 2
Best bet: Reds vs. Cardinals u8.5 total runs scored (-115)
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