Postseason hopefuls are set to clash this afternoon at Fenway Park. The Diamondbacks (66-61) are in the middle of a high-stakes National League wildcard race. As for the Red Sox (68-58), they’re chasing down the rival Yankees and Rays for better playoff positioning. With less than two months before the end of the regular season, every game down the stretch matters for these two clubs. After taking the first two games in this series, Boston will attempt to earn a sweep on Wednesday.
The Red Sox are favorites (-158) over the Diamondbacks; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Arizona and Boston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox pick, best bet today
- Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox under 8.5 runs (-129): Pfaadt has been on a tear recently, making him a difficult arm to fade this afternoon. It’s a similar story for Tolle, who faces a somewhat depleted Arizona lineup that struggles against the fastball. Both arms should keep things from getting out of hand on Wednesday.
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
On a decent but unspectacular D-backs rotation, Brandon Pfaadt is emerging as a go-to arm. Despite spending time out of the bullpen this season, the 27-year-old comes into today’s matchup with some momentum. Over his last nine starts, he’s notched a sparkling 1.15 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. That’s despite notching a lackluster 4.94 K/9 ratio during that stretch; the right-hander has traded whiffs for soft contact. It’s an approach that’s had undeniable results in recent weeks. Pfaadt doesn’t hurt himself very often, delivering a minuscule 2.3 BB/9 ratio this season as well.
The Red Sox have undergone a complete 180° at the plate, looking like one of the AL’s most formidable lineups over the past two months. Since July 1st, they’ve scored an MLB-best 234 runs. That’s without factoring in the recent debut of Adley Rutschman, one of the league’s top catchers. On Tuesday, the All-Star backstop clubbed a three-run homer against Arizona. With that being said, Boston sits within the bottom five clubs in hard-hit rate (36.4%) and average exit velocity (87.9 MPH). As previously mentioned, Pfaadt’s specialty as of late is limiting quality contact.
As for the Sawx, it’ll be Payton Tolle toeing the slab this evening. It’s been a breakout campaign for the southpaw, already a key piece for one of baseball’s best rotations. Over 115.0 innings pitched (20 starts), he’s recorded a 2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 128 strikeouts (10.0 K/9). He comes into this one on a heater, having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his previous four outings. It’s no fluke, either; Tolle sits within the 90th percentile or better in xERA (2.72), xBA (.201) and chase rate (36.1%). During his most recent appearance, the big lefty tossed eight scoreless, two-hit innings against Toronto.
Facing the Diamondbacks today presents more of a challenge, at least on paper. After all, the Snakes have done a stellar job hitting left-handed pitching all season. With that being said, the continued absence of Ketel Marte leaves the middle of their order much weaker than before. Tolle is more than comfortable throwing heat, throwing a 96 MPH fastball on nearly half of his pitches. Against four-seamers at that speed or faster, Arizona hitters have posted a .215/.305/.363 slash line this season.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox under 8.5 runs (-129)
Pfaadt is sneakily putting together a dominant second half. With respect to Boston’s lineup, I don’t see the 27-year-old getting rocked on Wednesday. Ditto for Tolle, who has been terrific all season for the Red Sox. Arizona, sans Marte, hasn’t done a good job against four-seam fastballs. That alone is enough reason to avoid the visitors this afternoon.
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