At this point in 2025, the Cleveland Guardians had just an 18.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.5% chance to win the AL Central before they eventually went on one of the most miraculous September runs in MLB history. This season, despite having four fewer wins and sitting in fourth place in their division, the Guardians have a 25.3% chance to make the playoffs and a 13.9% chance to win the division. Such is the volatile American League playoff race.
The rest of the month will be critical for Cleveland, as it’ll face the San Francisco Giants this week before series against the Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Angels, and Kansas City Royals, and an 8-4 stretch would likely vault it right back into a postseason position. Game 1 of the San Francisco series is set for 6:40 p.m. ET tonight.
Carsen Whisenhunt will take the mound for the Giants, and the Guardians will turn to trade deadline acquisition Foster Griffin.
Let’s break down this inter-league contest with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians Best Bets
- Cleveland Guardians 1st Run of Game (-110): Despite his poor first two starts for Cleveland and his mediocre expected stats, Griffin is a far better pitcher than Whisenhunt, and he should be able to keep San Francisco scoreless for longer.
- Jo Adell O1.5 Total Bases (+107): The Guardians brought in Adell at the trade deadline to boost their offense, and while he hasn’t been much better than he was for the Angels overall, he’s shown some pop, recording six extra-base hits.
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians prediction, preview
San Francisco is going to miss the playoffs for the ninth time in 10 seasons, and with another skid between now and the end of the season, it’s even plausible that the Giants could suffer their first 100-loss season since 1985. They’ve been on that pace since the All-Star break, going just 10-18 in that span, and they’ve had the fourth-worst offense, dealing away Luis Arraez and Heliot Ramos at the trade deadline to accelerate the teardown. Additionally, San Francisco has had the 11th-worst pitching staff in August, sending away starter Robbie Ray and relievers Caleb Killian and Erik Miller. The Giants did hold on to longtime ace Logan Webb and arguably their reliever in Sam Hentges, but their direction is clear. San Francisco hasn’t won multiple games in a row since July 21, and it hasn’t won a series since the prior day.
Cleveland, too, has slipped as of late. The Guardians have been in the driver’s seat to win the AL Central for most of the seasons by FanGraphs’ playoff likelihood despite generally trailing the Chicago White Sox, but Cleveland has gone just 9-19 since the All-Star break to fall 5.5 games behind Chicago and one game behind the final Wild Card spot. The Guardians haven’t been able to hit all season, ranking 29th in OPS for the season as a whole and 20th since the Midsummer Classic, and All-Star Travis Bazzana has a .517 OPS so far this month. Unlike in recent seasons, Cleveland’s pitching hasn’t done quite enough to make up for its dreadful offense, as Griffin hasn’t been great in his first two starts with the team and Gavin Williams is coming off of his second-worst start of the season. The Guardians’ bullpen, which has typically been a strength, has posted a 5.79 ERA in August; trade deadline acquisition Craig Yoho has been horrific, giving up seven earned runs in a two-outing stretch at one point.
Whisenhunt has potential, but he still hasn’t put it together. He’s made 11 career starts between last season and this season, recording a 5.61 ERA, and he’s had a 4.15 mark in 17 appearances (16 starts) for Triple-A Sacramento this season. To be fair, he’s coming off of his best start of the season, a 5.2-inning, one-run offering against the Houston Astros last Tuesday. Advanced numbers aren’t kind to Whisenhunt, who’s had just a 5.80 expected ERA this season. He’d have an elite whiff and strikeout rate if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, but making contact is one of Cleveland’s few strengths, which might be expected of a team led by José Ramírez and Steven Kwan. The Guardians also walk a lot, exacerbating Whistenhunt’s control issues. At least Cleveland isn’t well-suited to take advantage of all his weaknesses; he’d have a bottom-quartile average exit velocity and hard-hit rate if he qualified, but the Guardians don’t generate a lot of hard contact. The location splits are also not in his favor; he’s been somewhat worse on the road across the two levels at which he’s pitched this season, and Cleveland has been somewhat more effective offensively at home.
Griffin has lost some of his shine since the midseason blockbuster that saw him switch leagues. He returned to the majors after three seasons in Japan to pitch to a 3.06 ERA in 22 starts with the Washington Nationals, but he’s allowed eight runs (six earned) in his first nine innings with the Guardians, registering one win and one loss. Statcast figures suggest that this regression was always coming, and his 44th-percentile expected ERA is still nearly a full run worse than his actual mark. He has his strengths, as his average exit velocity, chase rate, and walk rate are all in or near the league’s top third, and the Giants might struggle, given that they’ve been baseball’s most walk-averse team this season. However, San Francisco has also displayed solid contact skills, and Griffin has below-average whiff and strikeout rates. He should be able to get away with it somewhat because the Guardians rank 10th by Defensive Runs Saved, but his lone start in Cleveland didn’t go very well and the Giants have been better offensively away from Oracle Park, a pitcher’s paradise.
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians 1st Run of Game (-110)
The Guardians will hit second in every inning, but I just don’t trust Whisenhunt very much. His .262 xBA would rank in the bottom quartile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, and Cleveland has scored just the 12th-fewest runs in August, a better mark than San Francisco.
Strong Lean: Jo Adell O1.5 Total Bases (+107)
Adell, who was acquired at the trade deadline from the Los Angeles Angels, has been hit-or-miss with the Guardians, but he’s had at least two total bases in four of his last eight games. Whisenhunt almost solely throws changeups or four-seamers to right-handed hitters, and Adell has mashed lefty four-seamers to the tune of a .729 xSLG.
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