Last night, the Boston Red Sox dominated the Arizona Diamondbacks with an 11-1 win at home. Tonight, these clubs play the second of three outings at Fenway Park with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
No MLB club has been better since the All-Star break than the Sox. They’re 21-10 since then, good for a .677 winning percentage, and have scored more runs than any other team over the same span. They’ve pushed their overall record for 67-58 on the full season and have a +91 run differential, closing the gap on the New York Yankees for second in the AL East. Meanwhile, the D-Backs have also been quite good lately with a 17-13 record of their own since the break. They’ve improved to 66-60 with a +8 differential and sit just one game shy of the San Diego Padres for both a Wild Card spot and second in the NL West.
RHP Merrill Kelly (8-10) gets the start for Arizona tonight. After a brief hot streak in July, he’s fallen back into his old ways with a rougher August and has a 5.11 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP on the year. He’s also struck out just 82 betters over his 125.0 IP, logging a K% of only 15.1% with a 9.8% BB%. His barrel rate ranks in the second percentile while his hard-hit rate is in the seventh. The D-Backs’ bullpen falls 18th in ERA at 4.18 with a 1.24 WHIP and a 12.2% K-BB%.
Boston brings out LHP Ranger Suarez (4-3), who’s been quite effective in his 108.0 IP. The offseason acquisition has a 3.25 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 110 strikeouts – tat gives him a 24.7% K% with a 7.0% BB%. Plus, his barrel and hard-hit rates are both in the 84th percentile or better while keeping average exit velocity way down at 86.7 mph. The club’s bullpen is elite as well, holding a 2.95 ERA that paces the sport and a 1.13 WHIP with a 15.6% K-BB%.
As for the bats, no lineup looks better than the Red Sox right now. Since the All-Star break, they’ve amassed a .796 OPS that ranks second in baseball while scoring 5.65 runs per game, also the best figure in the sport over that sample. An elevated .184 ISO (up from .154) has certainly helped, as has keeping strikeouts down at just 20.6%. The club has also mashed 41 homers in this span – fourth most – though they remain 25th on the year with 126. However, it’s worth noting the Red Sox slash .246/.317/.394 with a .711 OPS against right-handers, much lower than the .765 OPS against southpaws.
The Diamondbacks do find themselves on the right side of their splits tonight against a lefty, given a .276/.341/.445 slash line and staggering .786 OPS against southpaws this season. However, one of their top hitters against lefties was put on the Reserve List after Ketel Marte didn’t show up for yesterday’s contest. Since the break though, Arizona has a .779 OPS that ranks sixth with an excellent .176 ISO and the sixth-most runs scored of any club. The Snakes are still just 27th in homers this season with 124 though.
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Red Sox as -159 Moneyline favorites at home this evening, while the Diamondbacks enter as +148 underdogs on the road. The total is set at 7.5 combined runs.
The path to a win for Arizona centers around getting to Suarez early and taking advantage of the splits against lefty arms. That’s easier said than done given the season he’s having though, especially since he gives up very few homers and has conceded just six on the year over his 21 starts. Plus, Marte’s absence doesn’t make the task any easier since after all, the second baseman is one of the best bats against southpaws on the roster.
With that in mind, it’s tough to see this as anything other than a commanding win for the Sox. Their bats have been otherworldly levels of hot lately and now get a matchup against one of the MLB’s worst arms (no offense to Kelly). Even though they’re not astoundingly great against right-handers, the Red Sox should dominate at the plate once again and stay warm. The opposing starter ranks bottom-10 in the NL in hits, earned runs, homers and walks allowed this year and has a 6.89 ERA with a 1.72 ERA over the course of three August starts. Talk about a dream matchup for Boston.
