For all their ups and downs, the Yankees (69-55) remain in control of the American League’s top wildcard spot. Still, there’s plenty of time left for New York to catch up with the AL East-leading Rays. That means taking care of business between now and the end of September. As for the Orioles (61-64), Tuesday’s contest presents another chance to make a major statement. After taking three of four from Tampa Bay over the weekend, Baltimore is tied for possession of the Junior Circuit’s final wild card spot. Which of these rivals will come out on top this evening?
The Yankees are favorites (-109) over the Orioles; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between New York and Baltimore on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Orioles pick, best bet today
- Orioles under 3.5 runs (+114): Rodon, even on a pitch limit, has been pretty consistent this season. He and an elite Yankees bullpen could give this inconsistent Orioles lineup problems tonight. At plus money, fading Baltimore at the plate feels like the best value play in this one.
Yankees vs. Orioles prediction, preview
It’ll be Carlos Rodon on the bump tonight for New York. The southpaw hasn’t taken the mound since June 28th, dealing with elbow inflammation for most of the last two months. At his best, the three-time All-Star is a headache for opposing batters. That’s been the case yet again in 2026. Through 46.1 innings of work (nine starts), Rodon has recorded a 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 52 strikeouts (10.1 K/9). Granted, a 5.1 BB/9 ratio is cause for concern. Still, the left-hander is one of the sport’s best when it comes to preventing base hits. Keeping that in mind, traffic on the base paths is far from a guarantee tonight.
Last weekend’s series victory over Tampa Bay has given the Orioles a momentum boost coming into this one. The O’s are carried by their offense, including standout slugger Pete Alonso. Over his last ten games, the first baseman is slashing .474/.556/.921 with five home runs. During 39 career games against the Yankees, Alonso has clobbered 13 long balls. With that being said, Tuesday’s contest could prove difficult. Rodon has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last three meetings with Baltimore. In addition, the Orioles own the league’s ninth-worst OPS at home vs. left-handed pitching (.688).
Shane Baz will get the nod tonight for Baltimore. Acquired from Tampa Bay this offseason, it’s been a decent debut in Charm City. Over 139.1 innings pitched (24 starts), he’s accounted for a 4.00 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 122 strikeouts (7.9 K/9). Last week saw the right-hander cough up five earned runs in Minnesota. However, he allowed just one earned run in each of his four previous starts. To boot, Baz has been a better pitcher at home (3.69 ERA) than on the road (4.25 ERA). He also excels when it comes to limiting home runs (0.6 HR/9).
It’s no secret that hitting has been a massive struggle for the Yankees this season. Despite possessing an elite starting rotation, the Pinstripes have found themselves on the losing end of several 1-0 and 2-1 scores. Since July 1st, the team has recorded the third-fewest runs in all of baseball (136). Baz has struggled in this matchup, posting a 7.00 ERA over seven career meetings vs. New York. Still, it’s difficult to place too much weight on those numbers with Aaron Judge (ribs) and Cody Bellinger (hamstring) sidelined. The righty’s knack for preventing deep flies should come in handy tonight as well. The Bronx Bombers have smacked an American League-best 171 homers this season.
Best Bet: Orioles under 3.5 runs (+114)
Baz has struggled against the Yankees, but this offense has been abysmal over the past two months. Keeping that in mind, it’s difficult to say which side has the edge there. However, I feel good about Rodon’s chances of holding his own tonight. Even if the veteran gets an early hook, New York’s terrific bullpen comes into this one well-rested. An Orioles lineup that can whiff against lefties doesn’t inspire much confidence.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top NRFI props for Tuesday 8/18/26
- MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Tuesday 8/18/26
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
