NFL futures betting offers several ways to find value before the regular season begins, from division winners and conference champions to season win totals and player props. Betting splits provide another layer of information by showing where both the betting public and larger wagers are landing, helping identify which futures are drawing the most interest.
Below are the best NFC North bets for the 2026 NFL season, complete with current odds, DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits, why each market is attracting action and my analysis on every wager.
NFC North Best Bets and Betting Splits
| Bet | Odds | Bets % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions to Clinch NFC No. 1 Seed | +790 | 19% | 39% |
| Bears to Win the NFC | +1250 | 9% | 32% |
| Vikings Over 8.5 Wins | -110 | 86% | 94% |
| Caleb Williams Over 3,649.5 Passing Yards | -120 | 94% | 98% |
Best NFC North Playoffs Bet
Lions to Clinch NFC No. 1 Seed (+790)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 19% |
| Handle | 39% |
Why bettors are backing the Lions
When it comes to winning the NFC North outright, the Lions are favorites at +170. There is more upside on them earning the No. 1 seed in the playoff picture at +790, though, especially considering a division title effectively gives them a 1-in-4 shot at the bye. The sharp lean towards the Lions winning the division – 44% of the handle on 42% of the bets – isn’t quite as extreme as the one for them securing the NFC No. 1 Seed. Detroit is also reeling in 39% of the handle in that market, despite only accounting for 19% of the bets.
Analysis
After three straight seasons of improving their win total under Dan Campbell, Detroit took a step back and finished 9-8 in 2025. That was good for third place in the NFC North after back-to-back first place finishes in 2023 and 2024. As a result, Detroit will face a far more forgiving third-place schedule in 2026. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Lions boast the easiest strength of schedule of any team in the NFL. Considering a very similar Lions core earned the No. 1 seed in 2024 and lost out in a three-way tie for the lone NFC bye in 2023, there is certainly a path towards Detroit returning to that top spot again in 2026.
Best NFC North Conference Future
Bears to Win the NFC (+1250)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 9% |
| Handle | 32% |
Why bettors are backing the Bears
The Bears took a massive leap forward in 2025, more than doubling their regular season wins from five to 11. They also secured their first playoff berth in five years, as well as their first playoff win in 15 years. As it stands, the Bears’ +1250 odds to take the next step and win the NFC are the seventh-shortest in the conference. At the same time, the Bears are drawing 32% of the handle on just 9% of the bets in this market. With the handle sitting nearly three times higher than the number of bets would suggest, sharp bettors are driving the market when it comes to Chicago returning to the Super Bowl for the first time in 20 years. So while the Bears are tied for the third-most bets to win the NFC, they carry more than double the handle of the next most wagered contender – the Rams at 15%.
Analysis
Ben Johnson is now in his second year at the helm in Chicago, having just come up one overtime loss short of the NFC Championship Game in his debut campaign. The offensive guru has fully installed his system, on top of moving away from volatile receiver D.J. Moore. Johnson also has some new interior offensive linemen to work with in veteran Garrett Bradbury – who Chicago poached from the Patriots – and second-round pick Logan Jones in the wake of center Drew Dalman’s surprise retirement. On the other side of the ball, the Bears went out and added safeties Dillon Thieneman and Coby Bryant, linebacker Devin Bush and defensive tackle Neville Gallimore to bolster all three levels of their bottom-10 scoring defense.
Best NFC North Win Total Bet
Vikings Over 8.5 Wins (-110)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 86% |
| Handle | 94% |
Why bettors are taking the over
At -110 odds, 86% of the bets are on the Vikings to go over 8.5 regular season wins in 2026. The handle suggests a strong lean on top of the public popularity, with 94% of the handle on the over as well. Only eight teams have a higher share of the handle on their over, although none of those squads have a sharp lean of more than 5%. Since coach Kevin O’Connell took over in 2022, Minnesota has cleared 8.5 wins in three of four seasons, never dipping below seven wins. Kyler Murray also led the Cardinals to at least eight wins in each of the last three seasons in which he started 12-plus games.
Analysis
The Vikings went 9-8 in 2025, despite getting 17 touchdowns and 21 interceptions out of J.J. McCarthy, Max Brosmer and Carson Wentz. Two-time Pro Bowler Kyler Murray is now taking over as the Vikings’ starting quarterback having just turned 29 years old, so he could very well have plenty left in the tank. He is working in a competent offense run by a supposed quarterback whisperer in Kevin O’Connell, to say nothing of his potential connection with All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson. Minnesota’s strength over the past few years has been their defense, allowing the sixth-fewest points since the start of 2024. Adding Murray – who completes 67% of his passes and throws twice as many touchdowns as interceptions for his career – should only help a unit that was routinely on the back foot last season.
Best NFC North Player Prop Bet
Caleb Williams Over 3,649.5 Passing Yards (-120)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 94% |
| Handle | 98% |
Why bettors are backing the over
Since the Bears selected him No. 1 overall in the 2024, Caleb Williams has not missed a single game. Williams’ usage has been pretty consistent, too, attempting 562 passes in 2024 then 568 in 2025. He saw his completion percentage drop from 62.5% to 58.1% from his rookie year to his sophomore campaign, but his passing yards actually climbed from 3,541 to 3,942. The completion percentage issue could resolve itself with D.J. Moore and his 58.8% catch percentage gone, plus Rome Odunze could improve upon his 48.9% mark in a healthy year three. Under Ben Johnson, Williams went from 10.1 to 11.9 yards per completion while slashing his sack rate from 10.79% to 4.05%. With such a drastic step up in efficiency, it makes sense that 94% of bets are on Williams to go over 3,649.5 passing yards. There is a sharp lean as well, with 98% of the handle on that side of the total.
Analysis
Again, the combination of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams proved to be an effective one in 2025. It might just be the beginning of an elite coach-quarterback pairing that can stand up to Shanahan-Purdy, McVay-Stafford and Reid-Mahomes. On one hand, the Bears have had a quarterback throw for over 3,649.5 yards five times in 107 seasons. On the other hand, Williams’ 3,942 yards last year actually broke the franchise record. Williams wouldn’t even need to become the first Bears quarterback ever to go over 4,000 passing yards for the over to hit here, he would only have to crack the top six in single-season franchise history. Each of Williams’ first two seasons in the NFL currently sit in that top six as it is, so this is effectively a bet on Williams to stay healthy and not notably regress in 2026.
NFC North Bets FAQ
What are the best NFC North bets for the 2026 NFL season?
The featured NFC North bets include Lions to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Bears to win the NFC, Vikings over 8.5 wins and Caleb Williams over 3,649.5 passing yards.
What are NFL betting splits?
Betting splits show the percentage of tickets (bets) and money (handle) placed on each side of a wager. Comparing the two can provide insight into whether a market is being driven primarily by public bettors or larger wagers.
How should betting splits be used?
Betting splits should be one factor among many when evaluating a wager. They can help identify popular sides or where larger amounts of money are being wagered, but they should be combined with matchup analysis, injuries and market movement before placing a bet.
When do NFL futures bets close?
Most NFL futures markets remain open until the affected team’s first regular-season game, although odds and availability can change throughout the preseason.
