The NL Wild Card race, which has been an open question all season, looks like it’s finally starting to take shape. There are four teams fighting for three spots, and the Miami Marlins, 2.5 games behind, still have a prayer of a chance at 10.5%, per FanGraphs. Every other team has a 6.5% chance or less of ultimately qualifying for the playoffs.
Tonight, the Pittsburgh Pirates (one of those teams with a less than one-in-20 shot of qualifying) will play the middle game of a three-game road set against the Marlins, and given that a sweep would put a series dent in their playoff hopes, it’s effectively a must-win.
First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh will start Carmen Mlodzinski, and Janson Junk will take the mound for Miami.
Let’s break down this potentially Wild Card race-impacting matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins Best Bets
- Miami Marlins Moneyline (-114): The Marlins have recaptured some of their hot form from right before the All-Star break, and the Pirates have gone cold, going just 8-16 since then. Miami has the better squad and more to play for.
- Under 8 (-103): Neither of these teams has been great offensively recently, and they scored just two total runs in last night’s pitcher’s duel. Mlodzinski isn’t Paul Skenes, and Junk isn’t Eury Pérez, but these bats are clearly cold.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins prediction, preview
The Pirates were above .500 as recently as July 29, but momentum has definitely not been in their favor for most of the last two months, and they’ve gone just 8-16 since the All-Star break. In particular, Pittsburgh — which had baseball’s second-best offense before the Midsummer Classic — has had its fifth-worst offense since then, and as long as Konnor Griffin and Oneil Cruz remain out, its struggles are likely to continue, even as strong as rookie Esmerlyn Valdéz has been. Plus, the Pirates have surprisingly had both a below-average rotation and bullpen, as 2025 Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes has really struggled and they haven’t had the depth to back him up. Setup man Yohan Ramírez has been solid, as has Evan Sisk, but Pittsburgh wouldn’t have felt the need to bring in relievers Lake Bachar, Kirby Yates, Camilo Doval, and Luke Weaver if it had any faith in the options on its roster. So far, each of those acquisitions has been good, but they’re more likely to be a boon for next season at this point.
Meanwhile, the Marlins have had a complete roller-coaster of a season. At the end of May, they were eight games under .500 and looked out, but they went on a 26-8 stretch to climb back into the postseason picture before suffering a franchise-record 12-game losing streak. All in all, Miami has had the 10th-worst offense since the All-Star break despite Otto Lopez still leading the NL in batting average, and trading Liam Hicks will almost certainly lead to a step back in the long run. Still, the Marlins have made up for it by having the ninth-best pitching staff since the Midsummer Classic, as Sandy Alcantara has recaptured some of his Cy Young form. Despite putting most of their relievers in potential trade talks at the deadline, they only ended up moving on from Bachar and Braxton Garrett. Viktor Vodnik, the reliever Miami brought in, likely won’t make a massive immediate impact, but it was more a buying move than a selling one. The Marlins’ path to the postseason is conceivable.
Mlodzinski has been in and out of the rotation this season, making 10 starts and 16 relief appearances, but given that he hasn’t pitched since last Friday and tossed only four three innings (giving up five runs on seven hits and one walk), he should be able to handle a semi-normal starter’s load. Given that he’s had a respectable 3.51 ERA this season, the Pirates should have a chance with him on the mound. Still, he has his flaws; per Statcast, he has just a 19th-percentile expected ERA and sixth-percentile expected batting average. While he’s done a decent job incentivizing chases, ranking in the 48th percentile in that stat, Miami employs among the league’s most patient plate approaches, and despite Mlodzinski not walking many batters, the Marlins have done a good job earning free passes. Furthermore, Mlodzinski has a bottom-decile hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, which could help mitigate one of Miami’s biggest weaknesses. Still, he should have a slight split advantage overall, as he’s been slightly better on the road and the Marlins somewhat worse against lefties.
Junk is of a similar quality. His raw stats have been worse this season, as he has just a 4.63 ERA across 16 starts, but he’s been solid across his last three outings, pitching to a 2.13 ERA across that span. He’s been solid more often than not this season, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 16 starts. Plus, his advanced numbers are respectable, as he has a 43rd-percentile expected ERA. Like Mlodzinski, Junk doesn’t walk many batters, which should be an asset against a Pittsburgh team that has walked the sixth-most times. However, he ranks in just the first percentile in whiff rate, mitigating the boom-or-bust Pirates’ biggest weakness, and he sports just a 15th-percentile average exit velocity. Pittsburgh ranks near the middle of the pack in all of the power-related stats, although Cruz’s and Griffin’s absences haven’t helped. Optimists will point to the fact that Junk has been more than a run better at home and Pittsburgh’s offense nearly 100 OPS points worse on the road.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Miami Marlins Moneyline (-114)
The odds suggest that this one is close to a toss-up, but with Pirates’ poor form, especially on the road, I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing them. Junk is good enough to get the job done.
Strong Lean: Under 8 (-103)
Each of these teams has had a bottom-10 offense since the All-Star break, so even as mediocre as Junk and Mlodzinski have been, I can’t really back a high-scoring one here. The final score last night finished 2-0, and three of Miami’s last five games have gone under.
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