No team has ever made the playoffs with a sub-.500 record in a 162-game season, but given how mediocre the AL West has been this season, it’s possible that that could change this season. The division-leading Houston Astros are just 61-60, and two other teams are within 4.5 games of them.
Houston will hope to hold on to its division lead this afternoon, when it faces the San Francisco Giants in the rubber match of a three-game road series.
First pitch is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET. Bryan King will open ahead of Tatsuya Imai for the Astros, and the Giants will turn to Adrian Houser.
Let’s break down this much-anticipated game with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants Best Bets
- Over 8.5 (-102): Neither Imai or Houser has inspired much reason for confidence this season, especially given each’s shoddy advanced numbers, and Houston’s offense (going against the slightly stronger pitcher) is in much better form.
- Yordan Álvarez 1+ Home Runs (+294): It just feels like Álvarez is due, given that he hasn’t gone deep since July 28. He’s posted a .707 slugging percentage and a 99.7-MPH average exit velocity against the right-handed sinkers Houser loves to throw.
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants prediction, preview
Houston hovered below .500 for the majority of the season, and from April 15 to June 23, FanGraphs gave it less than a 10% chance of ultimately winning the division. However, the Astros got hot at the right time, as they’ve gone 14-9 since the All-Star break, winning 11 games in the span of 12 at one point. They’ve had the seventh-best offense in baseball this season, thanks to likely AL Triple Crown winner and MVP Yordan Álvarez and some solid production, especially since the Midsummer Classic, from Jeremy Peña. Houston had a quiet trade deadline, but Daulton Varsho had some solid games last season in the Toronto Blue Jays’ pennant run. Additionally, while the Astros have had the third-worst rotation in baseball, their rotation has improved and their bullpen has been tremendous since the All-Star break. Josh Hader and Steven Okert are a lethal late pairing, and Bennett Sousa, King, and AJ Blubaugh have had their moments.
It has been a miserable season for San Francisco, which has a much more difficult division to contend with. The Giants are just three games ahead of the Colorado Rockies for the worst record in the NL, and they’ve had less than a 10% chance of ultimately making the playoffs every day since May 17. San Francisco has had the seventh-worst offense since the All-Star break and just lost several of its best players at the trade deadline, dealing away Luis Arráez and Heliot Ramos and losing Casey Schmitt and Harrison Bader to likely season-ending injuries. Additionally, the Giants have had both a below-average rotation and bullpen, and trading away Robbie Ray, Caleb Killian, and Erik Miller won’t help. San Francisco has been mired in mediocrity for the better part of the 2020’s, so a complete tear-down makes sense, but it won’t make the Giants any more entertaining to watch for the rest of the season.
King will be making his first appearance as an opener this season, and he’s only pitched more than one inning nine times, so it’s fairly likely that it’ll be a quick appearance before turning it over to Imai. Although King has had a rough go of it as of late, pitching to an 11.57 ERA across his last nine outings, he’s still emerged scoreless in 34 of his 47 appearances, so a clean inning would be unsurprising. Imai, meanwhile, has had a disappointing rookie season, pitching to a 5.55 ERA across 16 appearances (15 starts) and failing to complete even the third inning on five separate occasions. Advanced numbers concur with basic stats on the Japanese right-hander, as he sports just a 24th-percentile expected ERA. He’s particularly struggled with his control, ranking in only the second percentile in walk rate, which could provide a lifeline to an extremely walk-averse San Francisco lineup. Additionally, Imai has bottom-decile barrel and hard-hit rates, and while the Giants don’t exactly have a hard-hitting lineup, it’s still not ideal. To be fair, Imai has been better on the road and San Francisco worse at home, but the bar is pretty low.
Houser has spent time in both the bullpen and the rotation, but last Friday, he had five strong innings of long relief, entering in the second inning and pitching five innings of one-run ball. He’s actually been pretty solid since the start of June, tossing 40.2 innings across 12 appearances and pitching to a 3.10 ERA. Advanced numbers suggest he’s of similar quality to Imai; he has a 14th-percentile expected ERA (5.08) and expected batting average (.270). While the right-hander has been good at avoiding walks, mitigating one of Houston’s strengths, and his reliance on sinkers allows him to force a lot of grounders, he has 26th-percentile barrel and hard-hit rates, which could be problematic especially against Álvarez. Houser does have a slight location split advantage, as he has been marginally better at home, but the Astros have been better against right-handed pitchers (again, mostly because of Álvarez).
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-102)
Houser’s solid recent form and the Giants’ offensive weakness (especially after their trade deadline moves) offer some reason for pause, but King has been in poor form and Imai hasn’t shown much of anything since his move over from Japan. Álvarez should rake against Houser.
Strong Lean: Yordan Álvarez 1+ Home Runs (+294)
Álvarez actually hasn’t homered since July 28, but given that he’s had a 1.050 OPS since the All-Star break, it’s not like he’s not seeing the ball well. He’s mashed 26 homers against righties in just 387 plate appearances.
More MLB Content
Read more MLB content at DraftKings Network:
- MLB Rain Delay Watch Today (August 12): Weather Forecast for All 15 MLB Games
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins prediction, pick for Wednesday 8/12/26
- MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Wednesday 8/12/26
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction, pick for Wednesday 8/12/26
Tail these bets and more in the DK Network MLB Dugout Betting Group here!
