The race for the AL Wild Card is going to be incredible down the stretch. After Saturday’s action, there are six teams that are only five games behind or fewer for the third and final Wild Card berth. The Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins are two such teams and will continue to do battle Wednesday in a crucial series for both teams.
Minnesota enters as a -118 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Orioles vs. Twins prediction, preview
First things first, let’s look at the starting pitchers in this matchup
Shane Baz steps to the mound for the Orioles on Wednesday. Though this hasn’t been an ideal season for Baltimore after making big off-season moves, including Baz, the 27-year-old starter has done his job. Through 23 starts and 136.1 innings, Baz holds a 3.76 ERA, and continues to throw quality innings for a rotation in flux.
With Baz on the mound, you’re going to see a four-seam fastball that sits around 96 MPH and a big, bendy curveball. Those two pitches comprise 67% of his total pitches thrown. He also throws a cutter a fair amount, while occasionally working in a changeup and a sinker. He doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts or ground balls, but has avoided hard contact at an above-average rate, which has kept his head above water.
Opposite Baz is young Twins starter Zebby Matthews. Once a top pitching prospect in Minnesota’s system, Matthews has set a career high in innings, but results continue to disappoint. The 26-year-old holds a 5.23 ERA through 86 innings, which is in line with his 5.63 career ERA. What’s more concerning is that Matthews, typically a strong strikeout pitcher, has seen a significant drop in punchouts. That has only made his penchant for giving up hard contact more damaging.
Matthews has a fairly diverse offering on the mound. It’s primarily four-seam fastballs, which sit just above 95 MPH, but he also uses a slider quite often. The changeup, curveball, and cutter have also been consistent weapons in his arsenal. Though not used very often, Zebby occasionally breaks out a sinker when he’s in need of a ground ball. Which happens to be often.
As of late, the two lineups have been comparable. Baltimore is 12th in wRC+ since the beginning of July, but it’s fair to wonder how the trade deadline will affect them. Of the 14 Baltimore hitters with 200+ at-bats, seven of them have an above-average OPS+. Two of those seven are currently hurt, and two of them were traded at the deadline, including franchise cornerstone Adley Rutschman. With Gunnar Henderson continuing to disappoint, it’s fair to wonder if Baltimore’s offense can hold up for the stretch run.
Minnesota doesn’t have that problem. They’re a respectable 17th in wRC+ since the beginning of July, but had no departures at the deadline. Byron Buxton typically sets the tone, but is currently on the IL. Fortunately for the Twins, they have guys to pick up the slack. Minnesota is getting good production from Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens, and plenty more. Royce Lewis has been mashing since he got back from Triple-A, which has given them a shot in the arm. If they can get guys healthy down the stretch, there’s a lot of reason to like this Twins lineup.
Now we know these teams a bit better; who is going to come out on top?
Orioles vs. Twins pick, best bet
It’s hard to know what will give first: Baltimore’s shallow lineup against a struggling Matthews, or Minnesota’s solid lineup against a solid Baz. My gut tells me neither pitcher will have a good time; though both bullpens are performing well, the damage will be done by the starters. There are going to be runs aplenty here.
