Four straight losses have put a damper on an otherwise remarkable midseason turnaround in Boston. Still, the Red Sox (64-55) come into tonight with the third-best record in the American League. Opposing them will be the Blue Jays (58-63), who took the first two matchups in this series. Toronto, despite looking subpar for most of the season, is just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. Which of these AL East rivals has the edge on Wednesday?
The Red Sox are favorites (-124) over the Blue Jays; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Boston and Toronto on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet today
- Red Sox ML (-124): This is a nice bounce-back opportunity for Boston, with one of its best arms in Suarez on the bump. Toronto’s struggles against southpaws make this a difficult offense to back, even at home. Keeping that in mind, the Red Sox are worth a closer look as modest favorites.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Ranger Suarez will get the nod this evening, making his 21st start of the season. One of the better signings of the offseason, the veteran has been a welcome presence in Beantown. Over 103.0 innings pitched, he’s delivered a 3.32 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 108 strikeouts (9.4 K/9). Suarez has been a bit shaky over his last two starts, failing to throw more than 4.2 innings while giving up three runs. However, he’s still one of the sport’s premier southpaws. A knack for limiting the long ball (0.5 HR/9) might be the veteran’s biggest strength.
That ability to keep the ball inside the park could give Suarez a boost tonight. The Blue Jays are starved for power, hitting an American League-worst 115 home runs. Infamously, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still has yet to slug one when playing at Rogers Centre. Still, the first baseman isn’t the only disappointing member of this lineup. Just three Toronto regulars (min. 100 plate appearances) have a wRC+ above 100 this season. To make matters worse, the Jays are responsible for a .625 OPS vs. left-handed pitching, lowest in the majors. Over 21.1 career innings vs. Toronto, Suarez has yet to allow a single earned run.
For the home team, it’ll be trade deadline acquisition Jose Soriano toeing the slab. The Dominican was solid during his team debut, allowing one earned run over 4.2 innings last week vs. Philadelphia. The Blue Jays will be looking for more length tonight, however. Much like Suarez, Soriano is a master at keeping the ball from elevating (0.6 HR/9). However, he’s far more prone to handing out free passes (4.2 BB/9). That tendency to lose command makes the right-hander a tricky arm to back. On any given night, the ‘bad’ Soriano could emerge.
Boston isn’t known for its ability to work the count, but it’s impossible to ignore what this lineup has done as of late. Since July 1st, they’re tied for second in baseball with 192 runs scored. The presence of switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman gives this offense far more depth as well. Over two career appearances against the Red Sox, Soriano has recorded a dismal 13.50 ERA. Those games came prior to this season, so it’s not wise to read too much into those results. With that being said, the former Angels hurler can be erratic.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-124)
Soriano’s command is a question mark, especially when facing a red-hot Boston lineup. In comparison, Toronto’s inability to hit homers or left-handed pitching makes today’s game a difficult matchup. Suarez has delivered impressive numbers in this spot before, and there’s nothing to suggest anything different on Wednesday. Back the visitors in this one.
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