The postseason chase is heating up across the National League. Right now, it’s the Phillies (64-56) in possession of the Senior Circuit’s final wild card spot. Sitting 4.5 games behind them in the standings are the Cardinals (59-60). St. Louis, despite operating as trade deadline sellers, still has a puncher’s chance at reaching the playoffs. As for Philadelphia, Tuesday presents an opportunity to build add some cushion from the rest of the pack. Who will emerge victorious tonight at Busch Stadium?
The Phillies are favorites (-163) over the Cardinals; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Philadelphia and St. Louis on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Cardinals pick, best bet today
- Phillies -1.5 (+100): With respect to the underrated Pallante, Sanchez is the main event in this matchup. There’s nothing on paper that suggests regression against a mediocre Cardinals lineup. In comparison, the Phillies have been far more effective at the plate in recent weeks. Expect the visitors to earn a comfortable win this evening.
Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
It’ll be one of the best pitchers on Earth toeing the slab tonight in Cristopher Sanchez. The starting pitcher for the National League in this year’s All-Star Game, it’s been a terrific campaign from the veteran. Over 149.2 innings of work (24 starts), he’s notched a 2.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 174 strikeouts (10.5 K/9). The southpaw has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his previous seven appearances. Sanchez ranks inside the 92nd percentile or better in chase rate (37.1%), whiff rate (32.8%), walk rate (5.6%) and ground ball rate (58.0%). That latter mark explains the lefty’s 0.8 HR/9 ratio, tied for eighth-best among all qualified starters.
The Cardinals, despite a few big bats, aren’t the best offensive unit. The team has scored 520 runs this season, only good enough for 19th in the majors. Jordan Walker (129 wRC+), Alec Burleson (129 wRC+) and a few others have done their job. However, it’s clear that there isn’t a ton of depth in this lineup. St. Louis has a .694 OPS against left-handed pitching, the 11th-worst mark in baseball. Sanchez has put up a 2.45 ERA over his previous three outings against St. Louis.
In an effort to counter Philadelphia’s ace, Andre Pallante will get the nod tonight. While far from elite, the right-hander is one of the sport’s most underrated pitchers. Entering Tuesday’s contest, he’s recorded a 3.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 90 strikeouts (6.5 K/9) over 124.0 innings. Despite the lack of swing and miss stuff, the 27-year-old makes up for it with a 96th percentile ground ball rate (56.0%). To boot, he’s done an exceptional job at preventing home runs (0.7 HR/9).
Philadelphia strikes out at the ninth-highest rate in the majors, so facing Pallante could work in their favor. With that being said, his tendency to limit the long ball could hinder an all-or-nothing lineup. Fortunately, trade deadline acquisition Lus Arraez adds an elite contact hitter alongside these Phillies mashers. Despite a recent 0-for-11 stretch, the All-Star’s knack for putting bat on ball could set up his power-laden teammates tonight. Philadelphia has scored a National League-best 57 runs over its last ten games.
Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+100)
Sometimes, the obvious bet makes the most sense for a reason. That’s the case on Tuesday, with one of the sport’s top pitchers in Sanchez on the mound. An already mediocre St. Louis lineup has been even worse when taking on left-handed hurlers. Pallante is good enough to hold his own, but a dangerous Phillies lineup could break through tonight.
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