Few teams have been better in recent weeks than the Diamondbacks (64-56). After hanging around .500 for most of the first half, Arizona has picked up 16 wins over its last 25 games. That includes a dominant 9-0 victory last night over the Rockies (46-73). Colorado, even with little to play for, will be eager to even up this series on Tuesday. Will the Snakes keep rolling at home tonight?
The D-backs are favorites (-170) over the Rockies; the over/under is set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Colorado and Arizona on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet today
- Diamondbacks -1.5 (+113): Arizona is on a tear, and there’s nothing that suggests an end to that tonight. Sugano has done an admirable job this season, but he’s been bad on the road. Bratt isn’t perfect, but he’s talented enough to keep Colorado’s hitters at bay. The D-backs offer more juice at -1.5 on Tuesday.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
It’s no secret that Colorado has struggled on the mound. If anyone deserves the title of staff ace, it’s Tomoyuki Sugano. The former Orioles pitcher has had a solid season, all things considered. Over 107.2 innings (20 starts), he’s accounted for a 4.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 61 strikeouts (5.1 K/9). Given that half of his games take place at the high altitude of Coors Field, those numbers aren’t half bad. However, that’s also what makes Sugano’s pitching so bizarre. He’s performed better in Denver, delivering a 3.93 ERA at home. On the road, that number shoots up to 5.13. The Japanese hurler has a dismal 7.16 xERA and .313 xBA, suggesting he’s due for negative regression.
Considering his unimpressive peripherals, Tuesday could prove difficult for Sugano. As previously mentioned, the Diamondbacks are on a roll over the past month. That’s especially true at the plate; they’re tied for the fourth-most runs in baseball (183) since July 1st. There’s certainly star power here, with All-Stars Corbin Carroll (117 wRC+) and Ketel Marte (102 wRC+). However, Arizona’s best attribute is lineup depth. Seven different members of the active roster (min. 100 plate appearances) have a wRC+ above 100 this season.
On the mound for the Snakes will be Mitch Bratt. It’ll be the rookie’s seventh career start, having tossed 27.2 innings so far. During that time, he’s recorded a 3.90 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 21 strikeouts (6.8 K/9). Despite putting plenty of runners on, those stats aren’t too shabby for an unproven arm. During Bratt’s most recent outing last week, he held the Padres scoreless over seven one-hit innings. The biggest key for the southpaw is command, something he often struggles with. Bratt is on the hook for a sky-high 5.9 BB/9 ratio this season. He’s handed out 12 free passes over his last three contests, despite performing well otherwise.
Fortunately for Bratt, tonight’s opponent isn’t equipped to take advantage of his biggest weakness. The Rockies are averaging just 3.08 walks per game, fourth-fewest in baseball. Unsurprisingly, this offense has been significantly better when playing at home. Colorado is putting up 4.37 runs per game, tied for 11th-lowest in the majors. Mickey Moniak (121 wRC+), Jake McCarthy (119 wRC+) and Hunter Goodman (118 wRC+) give this lineup more juice than it had last season. Still, there’s not enough here on most nights to make up for lackluster pitching.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+113)
Sugano’s poor advanced metrics and road struggles are cause for concern. A capable, veteran-led D-backs lineup has enough quality bats to make the righty sweat tonight. On the other side, Colorado’s undisciplined offense may not be able to exploit Bratt’s command issues. If the youngster holds his own, Arizona’s offense should find a way to break this one open.
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