At this point, the Rookie of the Year races in both leagues have clear favorites, with the Detroit Tigers’ Kevin McGonigle holding the inside track at the AL award and the St. Louis Cardinals’ JJ Wetherholt slowly separating himself in the NL. Neither race is quite over yet, though; if the Chicago White Sox’s Munetaka Murakami and the Cincinnati Reds’ Sal Stewart stay healthy and go on runs, it’s a realistic possibility that one of them can make the voting interesting.
Murakami and Stewart will both have an opportunity to make a statement this week as the White Sox begin a three-game home set against the Reds.
The series opener is set to begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. Nick Lodolo will toe the rubber for Cincinnati, and Sean Burke will do the same for Chicago.
Let’s break down this potentially award-affecting game with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox Best Bets
- Over 7.5 (-114): Neither team’s offense has been in incredible form as of late, but eight total runs isn’t that high a bar, especially since Lodolo has an expected ERA north of 6 this season. Three of the White Sox’s last five games have gone over.
- Munetaka Murakami or Sal Stewart – Either Batter 1+ Home Runs (+173): This isn’t a great matchup for either star rookie, since Murakami has been worse against lefties and Stewart worse against righties, but both starters can be barrel-prone at times.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox prediction, preview
The Reds are one of just six NL teams with less than a one-in-20 chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs. Although they had a strong start to the season, climbing to nine games above .500 at one point, they were just 43-52 at the All-Star break, and even a 13-9 run since then seems destined to leave them on the outside looking in. Cincinnati hasn’t been able to get much going offensively, ranking eighth-to-last in OPS overall and merely 15th since the All-Star break. While Stewart (.807 OPS) and Elly De La Cruz (.852) have been fine and JJ Bleday has enjoyed a breakout season, Matt McLain, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Noelvi Marté, and Eugenio Suárez have been completely ineffective. Additionally, the Reds have had below-average pitching, even after the All-Star break, and they got worse by dealing away Caleb Ferguson, a veteran left-hander. Starter Chase Burns and relievers Brock Burke and Tejay Antone have been solid enough, but especially with Hunter Greene out for the season, Cincinnati lacks the pitching depth to make a run.
The White Sox have built on their strong foundation from the second half of last season to climb the standings. On July 30, Chicago finally surpassed the Cleveland Guardians as the division favorites, and after taking two of three from Cleveland over the weekend, the White Sox now have a 39.5% chance to win the division and a 51.5% to make the playoffs. Chicago has had a slightly above-average offense for the season as a whole, and though it’s been the 10th-worst since the All-Star break, there’s arguably no better young infield quartet than Murakami, Chase Miedroth, Colson Montgomery, and Miguel Vargas. The White Sox’s pitching could still use some work, as their rotation ranks 20th and their bullpen 10th in ERA, but bringing in starter Luis Castillo and reliever Huascar Brazobán should help in the long run, even though Castillo has been awful this season and continued to struggle in his team debut.
Lodolo is currently on the Injured List after experiencing blistering on his left hand, but he completed a rehab start last Wednesday (giving up three runs in 4.1 innings of work) and is expected to be activated in advance of tonight’s game. The southpaw was in solid form before going down, pitching to a 1.35 ERA across his final four starts to lower his season-long mark to 4.60. He’s benefited from plenty of luck, though; per Statcast, he’s expected to sport a 6.15 ERA and a .292 batting average, both third-percentile marks. He’s also had a bottom-quintile whiff and strikeout rate, and Chicago (especially Murakami) can be extremely boom-or-bust. To be fair, Lodolo has been pretty good at generating grounders, exacerbating one of the White Sox’s biggest weaknesses. The location splits should also be in his favor, as he has an ERA nearly two runs lower on the road this season, albeit in a tiny sample size.
Burke has been sharper for a longer period of time than Lodolo. He’s made nine starts since June 18 and pitched to a 1.64 ERA, with Chicago winning seven of those nine games. While he isn’t coming off of his best start, 4.1 innings and two earned runs would be pretty solid by his opponent’s standards. Advanced numbers are kind to Burke, as he ranks in the 68th percentile in xERA and the 85th in pitching run value. In particular, Burke has done a good job incentivizing chases and whiffs, which could help against a Reds lineup with a patient plate approach but subpar contact skills. Additionally, he has a high strikeout rate, and Cincinnati gets fanned a ton. He ranks in just the 15th percentile in ground ball rate and the Reds do a good job getting the ball up, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he gave up a homer, but he should be effective regardless. His location splits are mixed, as he’s been better on the road and Cincinnati’s offense worse.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-114)
Even though he was in good form before landing on the Injured List, Lodolo hasn’t had a particularly strong season, and his advanced numbers are spooky. I’m not confident enough in either of these teams’ bullpens to stay under this relatively low line.
Strong Lean: Munetaka Murakami or Sal Stewart – Either Batter 1+ Home Runs (+173)
Lodolo isn’t the greatest matchup for Murakami, who’s been significantly worse against lefties, but he hit two homers over the weekend, including one off of lefty Parker Messick. Additionally, 19 of Stewart’s 25 long balls have come against righties.
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