A pair of struggling NL clubs battle it out this evening with a couple of standout arms on the mound, setting up what might become a real pitcher’s duel. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins both have legitimate hopes of making it into the postseason, but have been on skids ever since the All-Star break. First pitch for tonight’s game is set for 6:40 p.m. ET at LoanDepot Park, where Paul Skenes will take on Eury Perez.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Pirates vs. Marlins game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Both of these clubs are within striking distance of a postseason berth, though it would likely come as a Wild Card team rather than a push for a division title. The Pirates have dropped to 58-62 after going 8-15 since the All-Star break, and their run differential comes in at just +21 now. The Marlins have gone 8-14 over the same span and are now 60-59 with a +15 differential. With six games or less separating each side from a Wild Card berth, it’s clear there’s work to be done.
Pittsburgh sends out RHP Paul Skenes (9-10), who’s experienced a little bit of bad luck this year. He holds a 3.96 ERA that’s way elevated compared to his prior production, but has underperformed a 3.01 xERA. His WHIP is 1.12 and he does still bring an elite K% of 30.5% with 162 punchouts over 129.2 IP, also maintaining a respectable 6.8% BB%. The bullpen backing him ranks 19th in ERA at 4.21 with a 1.39 WHIP and a 13.3% K-BB%.
Miami’s starter isn’t quite the same caliber of arm, but he is talented. RHP Eury Perez (5-9) brings a 3.61 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP into this game with 121 strikeouts over 109.2 IP. He’s amassed a 27.1% K%, though a 9.4% BB% is on the higher side. The relief staff has a 3.85 ERA that ranks 11th along with a 1.23 WHIP and a 13.9% K-BB%.
Both of these clubs do have quality lineups, too. The Pirates are fourth in OPS at .746 on the year, fourth in wOBA (.329), 15th in ISO (.156), and 11th in home runs (145). The splits also support their status as one of the best righty-mashing teams, slashing .262/.345/.427 for a .772 OPS in such matchups. Meanwhile, the Marlins also slot in at 10th in OPS (.731), eighth in wOBA (.322), 18th in ISO (.154) and 25th in homers (120). Against right-handers, they slash .256/.330/.411 with a .740 OPS, too.
However, neither offense looks like itself right now. Since the break, Pittsburgh ranks 24th in OPS at .652 while Miami falls 20th at .687. In this same sample, the clubs are 25th and 26th in total runs scored, so the bats are cold at the moment.
Pirates vs. Marlins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pirates as -116 Moneyline favorite on the road tonight, while the Marlins enter as +108 underdogs to win at home. The run total is set at just seven.
The run total is very low here, yes. However, look at the arms on display. Skenes remains a transcendent talent even if his ERA has ballooned this year (to a level most average pitchers would be quite pleased with, to apply context). Perez has plenty of upside and is backed by a quality bullpen. Now, look at the recent form of the lineups. Neither is scoring at a high level or even reaching base at a rate they’re accustomed to, sitting 19th and 24th in wOBA since the break for Miami and Pittsburgh, respectively. On a similar note, the clubs are 22nd and 27th in wRC+ over the same span.
It’s time to fade offense and ride with the under. There are too many factors leaning in its favor.
