There are four teams in the NL that have effectively secured their place in these playoffs, barring a major collapse, so for the Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, and Los Angeles Dodgers, the rest of the season is mostly about staying healthy for the playoffs. That’s especially true for the Cubs, who will likely be a Wild Card team thanks to the Brewers’ dominance.
Tonight, Chicago will open up a three-game set against the Washington Nationals, who are mostly out of the playoff picture but still have a flicker of hope, five games behind the final Wild Card spot.
The series opener is set to begin at 6:45 p.m. ET. Shota Imanaga is scheduled to start for the Cubs, and the Nationals will counter with Jake Irvin.
Let’s break down this plausible playoff preview with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals Best Bets
- Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-103): It’s hard to bet against a team that has been on a 111-win pace for two months, especially against a team that, prior to a recent winning streak, lost five games in a row by multiple runs.
- Over 2.5 Home Runs (-105): Both of these teams have pretty powerful offenses, as they rank first and ninth in homers. Additionally, Irvin led the league in homers allowed last season, and Imanaga is occasionally prone to allowing barrels.
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals prediction, preview
Chicago has been basically the hottest team in the league for several months, and although it won’t win its division because of Milwaukee’s incredible form, there’s no reason not to see the Cubs as proper contenders. They suffered a 10-game losing streak in May to drop back to roughly .500, but since June 11, they’ve gone 35-16, an 111-win pace across the full season, and they just swept the Dodgers last week. Since the All-Star break, Chicago has had the fifth-best offense, and Pete Crow-Armstrong now leads the NL in rOBA in addition to his Platinum Glove-caliber defense. The Cubs’ offense seems to be sustainable — in fact, they rank third in OPS for the season as a whole — and they massively upgraded their pitching, which has been baseball’s second-best since the All-Star break. Chicago made several moves at the trade deadline, bringing in Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Kevin Gausman to join the rotation and Aaron Civale, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Braxton Garrett to serve as relievers.
Meanwhile, the Nationals are surprise contenders. They’ve lost 90 or more games in each of the past five seasons, but they’ve hovered within five games of .500 for the entire season. In particular, Washington’s offense has been tremendous, as it ranks second in OPS both for the season as a whole and since the All-Star break. Although Luis García Jr. (traded) and James Wood (injured) are big losses, CJ Abrams leads all of baseball in RBI’s and Nasim Nuñez in steals, and Wood should return some time before the end of the month. The Nationals have had both the fifth-worst rotation and bullpen in the majors this season, and they shook their pitching corps up dramatically at the trade deadline, sending away Foster Griffin, releasing Zack Littell, and acquiring Connelly Early, Jake Bird, and Yovanny Cruz. All of these moves suggest that Washington’s braintrust isn’t confident in a playoff push for this season, but the Nationals should be expected to compete in 2027.
Imanaga has been pretty solid, especially as of late. He’s made 23 starts this season, pitching to a 3.60 ERA, but most of the damage against him came in a brutal four-start stretch at the end of May. Since June 10, he’s made 10 starts, allowing two or fewer earned runs in all but one of them and registering a 2.06 mark. Advanced numbers are fairly kind to him, as his xERA (3.73) is more or less in line with his actual mark. In particular, Imanaga has exceptional control, ranking in the top decile in both chase and walk rate, and Washington is a team that walks frequently (although less frequently with Wood now injured). The southpaw has also been pretty good at avoiding hard hits, ranking above the league average in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, which could be a critical asset against the Nationals’ powerful bats. He gives up far too many fly balls (and therefore barrels), so he isn’t a perfect matchup for Washington, but given that he’s been better on the road and the Nationals have performed similarly regardless of venue, five or more innings and two or fewer earned runs seems like a reasonable expectation.
I’d certainly take Imanaga over Irvin. The fourth-year right-hander led all of baseball with 38 homers and 114 earned runs allowed last season, and he hasn’t been much better in 2026, pitching to a 5.37 ERA across 13 starts, including a 6.10 mark since returning from a shoulder strain. Advanced numbers aren’t kind to him; he has just a ninth-percentile expected ERA and a 40th-percentile pitching run value. Unlike Imanaga, Irvin has been terrible at incentivizing chases, ranking in just the third percentile in that stat, and that could be a boon for the Cubs, who walk at the league’s highest rate. Additionally, Irvin has been extremely prone to giving up hard hits, posting just a second-percentile barrel rate and a 13th-percentile hard-hit rate, and although Chicago ranks near the middle of the pack in both stats, Crow-Armstrong should definitely be salivating. Irvin has also been significantly worse at home this season.
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-103)
Washington’s offense is legitimate, even without Wood and García, but rebuilding its pitching staff on the fly usually isn’t conducive to immediate success, and Irvin just isn’t in the same tier as Imanaga.
Strong Lean: Over 2.5 Home Runs (-105)
If any damage comes against Imanaga, it’s likely to come via big fly, as he’s allowed at least one homer in 14 of his 23 starts and the Nationals have hit the most homers this season. Additionally, Irvin has conceded 10, including at least one in both of his starts since his injury return.
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