BvP. It’s maybe the most polarizing stat in the world of daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting.
While it would seem obvious that a batter’s history with a specific pitcher would be incredibly important and useful information, BvP numbers laugh in the face of sample size. They not only make us draw conclusions from an amount of at-bats that could take place over the course of two or three games, but remember, those games could have happened a half decade ago.
That said, I’d want to know if someone has a couple home runs of a starter that’s pitching tonight. Who wouldn’t?
In this space, I’ll attempt to toe the line between BvP love and hate. Let’s look at some matchups and see if history really is going to mean success on tonight’s slate.
Top BvP Matchups Today
| Batter | Pitcher | Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | Michael Wacha (KC) | .545/.583/1.182 – 1.765 OPS |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | Michael Wacha (KC) | .533/.650/.800 – 1.450 OPS |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | Martin Perez (ATL) | .440/.533/.680 – 1.213 OPS |
| Bo Bichette (NYM) | Martin Perez (ATL) | .467/.500/.600 – 1.100 OPS |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | Tanner Bibee (CLE) | .286/.444/.643 – 1.087 OPS |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | Kyle Harrison (MIL) | .333/.333/.667 – 1.000 OPS |
| Jorge Polanco (NYM) | Martin Perez (ATL) | .286/.389/.571 – .960 OPS |
| Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) | Martin Perez (ATL) | .385/.467/.462 – .929 OPS |
| Enrique Hernandez (LAD) | Michael Wacha (KC) | .333/.333/.500 – .833 OPS |
| Starling Marte (KC) | Blake Snell (LAD) | .263/.300/.474 – .774 OPS |
**Minimum 10 at-bats**
BvP Matchup Analysis
Teoscar Hernandez vs. Michael Wacha | 1.765 OPS (11 ABs)
I will say, right off the top, that this is not a matchup I was expecting to produce the highest OPS of the slate. Teoscar Hernandez was very good in his prime, yet the 33-year-old has always been at his best against left-handed pitching. For his career, Hernandez sports a 135 wRC+ within the split versus a 109 wRC+ against right-handers. It’s pretty cut and dry. Plus, for how it pertains to tonight’s action, it needs to be said that Hernandez is obviously no longer in that prime. 2026 has been a bit of a nightmare for the veteran outfielder, as he’s registered career-low marks in ISO (.153) and wRC+ (96). Meanwhile, Wacha’s just doing his thing for the Royals. He’s got a 3.44 ERA over 144.0 innings. Heck, he was an All-Star last month. That’s wild.
Francisco Lindor vs. Martin Perez | 1.213 OPS (25 ABs)
Here’s a fun one. Perez is closing in on 300 starts in his career, most of those coming in the American League with Texas and Boston. Lindor used to also call the AL home, so these two have seen a lot of each other over the years, with the shortstop clearly having the upper hand in those meetings. However, these BvP numbers aren’t all from a decade ago. Literally last month, on July 27, Perez faced-off with the Mets and Lindor smashed a triple and a home run in his first two at-bats of the game. This is all part of a larger recent trend for the former All-Star, as Lindor is finally starting to look like himself again after missing time early in the season due to injury. In his 104 plate appearances since the Midsummer Classic, Lindor is slashing .286/.375/.549 with a 156 wRC+. He’s red-hot.
Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. Kyle Harrison | 1.000 OPS (12 ABs)
I think this matchup is a perfect example of the flaw of falling in love with BvP. Fernando Tatis Jr. does have some success off Kyle Harrison in his career. He even has a home run, with that blast coming all the way back on March 29, 2024. But here’s the thing: Harrison is a completely different pitcher in 2026. After being traded to the Red Sox in the Rafael Devers deal, the southpaw was again re-routed to Milwaukee — an organization known for it’s pitching lab and development. Lo and behold, Harrison owns a 2.84 ERA and a 2.90 FIP in his 18 starts with the Brewers, and he’s posting career-best marks in strikeout rate (31.1%) and K/BB ratio (5.3). The soon-to-be 25-year-old is looking like an ace. It’s not a shock that when he faced San Diego on May 14 of this season, Harrison tossed five scoreless frames.
