In a 162-game MLB season, no team has ever made the playoffs with a losing record. Since the expansion to the current playoff format prior to the 2022 season, the worst team to make the postseason was the 2025 Cincinnati Reds, who finished 83-79. It’s possible that that could change in 2026: the 59-59 Texas Rangers currently hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League, putting plenty of teams under .500 within striking distance.
In a standard season, the 58-61 Minnesota Twins and the 57-61 Baltimore Orioles would both be effectively done, but entering their three-game series in Minnesota, each has semi-realistic playoff dreams.
The series opener is set to begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. Trevor Rogers will crest the hill for Baltimore, and former Oriole Dean Kremer will make his second start for the Twins.
Let’s break down this battle of Wild Card-chasing sides with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins Best Bets
- Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-112): These teams are pretty evenly-matched, but Baltimore has been the better team since the All-Star break, and Rogers has a pretty significant edge in the starting pitching matchup, especially given his recent form.
- Trevor Rogers 6+ Strikeouts (+141): Rogers has returned to Cy Young-level form across the last two months, striking out six or more in each of his last four starts. Minnesota doesn’t strike out much, but neither do the Houston Astros, and Rogers just struck out eight against them on July 18.
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins prediction, preview
Baltimore has spent most of the season hovering around .500, sitting between .500 and nine games below .500 since the middle of April, but so far in the second half of the season, the Orioles have made a small push, going a solid 11-10. At a 13.4% of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs, they’re not totally out of it yet. To be fair, Baltimore hasn’t gotten much going offensively as of late, ranking 10th-to-last in OPS since the All-Star break. Trading Adley Rutschmann for Carlos Narváez and prospects certainly won’t help this season, but Jackson Holliday has stepped up and Pete Alonso is coming off of a two-homer game. The Orioles have ben able to win because of their improved pitching; they rank 11th in ERA since the Midsummer Classic, and every member of their recent regular rotation has an ERA+ of at least 95 for the season as a whole. Baltimore’s bullpen has been quite poor this month, and trading Tyler Wells won’t help, but given that Yennier Cano (2.04 ERA) and Rico Garcia (2.90) are still on the roster, it’s probably due for a bounce-back at some point. With some offensive improvement, the Orioles could make up their two-game deficit.
Meanwhile, Minnesota probably didn’t enter the season with any playoff expectations after it sold off most of its roster at the trade deadline last season, but the Twins have briefly held a division lead and were as much as four games over .500 at one point early in the season. While they’ve slipped slightly since the All-Star break, going 10-12, their postseason chances are nearly double Baltimore’s, in part because they’re a half-game ahead in the standings and in part because they play in a weaker division. Minnesota has had the fourth-worst offense since the All-Star break, as its best hitter, Byron Buxton, is still on the Injured List, but it didn’t trade any offensive player at the trade deadline, and it has a promising young prospect in Kaelen Culpepper, who homered in his second career at-bat on Saturday. Additionally, while the Twins have had a below-average pitching staff this season, they made substantial investments at the trade deadline, adding Kremer in addition to relievers Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter.
Rogers has been the second-worst of Baltimore’s regular starters this season, but his full-season numbers belie his recent effectiveness. He’s made 21 starts and pitched to a 4.20 ERA, failing to live up to the standard that he set in 2025, when he posted a 1.81 mark across 18 starts and finishing ninth in Cy Young Award voting despite pitching just once before June because of injury. Still, his form is trending in the right direction; since the start of June, Rogers has pitched to a 2.28 ERA in 11 starts. Advanced numbers like Rogers; his 3.76 expected ERA is a 62nd-percentile figure, and he has elite chase and walk rates, which could fluster a somewhat disciplined Minnesota lineup. Additionally, although Rogers doesn’t do a great job generating whiffs, the Twins have hit air at a relatively high rate. Minnesota also doesn’t necessarily have the requisite power to take advantage of his below-median average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Rogers has been slightly more effective on the road, and the Twins have produced nearly identically regardless of venue.
Rogers should have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Kremer. Though Kremer was solid in 2022, finishing with a 3.23 ERA in 22 outings (21 starts), he otherwise hasn’t posted a sub-4 ERA as a pro, and he was at 6.50 after seven starts with the Orioles this season, including six-inning, six-run and four-inning, eight-run efforts in his final two starts. He got off to a good start in Minnesota, allowing one earned run in five innings, but his overall numbers are unimpressive. Kremer still ranks in just the 31st percentile in expected ERA and the 17th in pitching run value. He also has a below-median chase rate, which could be a problem against Baltimore’s relatively patient lineup, and his struggles to produce grounders could be a problem against a fly ball team. Kremer’s top-quartile average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are definitely assets against one of the league’s most powerful lineups, but thanks to his struggles to keep the ball down, he has a slightly below-median barrel rate. Locational splits aren’t very informative, since he just got traded, but he’s pitched to a 5.73 ERA in two career starts at Target Field. To be fair, the Orioles have been less dangerous on the road.
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-112)
Leaning too heavily into this pitching matchup relies reading into small sample sizes, but Rogers was a Cy Young candidate last season, while Kremer has never been close to that level, even in his comparatively better 2025 campaign.
Strong Lean: Trevor Rogers 6+ Strikeouts (+141)
This might be a tricky line for Rogers early in the season, as he recorded six or more strikeouts in only two of his first 13 games of the season, but as of late, he’s found his punchout pitches, fanning six or more in each of his last four outings.
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