For the first time since June 30 and July 1, the Red Sox have lost two consecutive games. I know. The horror.
Boston dropped its series against the Athletics over the weekend, and now it’ll travel north of the border to take on a Blue Jays squad that is suddenly looking a little frisky, having won seven of their last 11 contests.
Can the Red Sox get things back on track with a victory in Toronto? Let’s preview this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
On the surface, this looks like a pretty lopsided game. It’s goes deeper than the pitching matchup, too, which I’ll break down in a moment. The disparity between these two lineups since the All-Star break is massive. While the Red Sox lead MLB in slugging percentage (.462) and sit third in wRC+ (120), the Jays rank 28th in ISO (.112) and dead-last in expected wOBA (.278). It’s not like Boston’s lineup is littered with Silver Slugger candidates, either. Roman Anthony (finger) and Trevor Story (hernia) haven’t played in months, and Adley Rutschman (wrist) has yet to make his debut with the club — though he did travel to Toronto. This is a roster that has had Nick Sogard leading off and Caleb Durbin batting clean-up, but it’s worked. There’s some real “team of destiny” vibes going with the Red Sox at the moment.
What’s really been leading the charge in this historic turn-around for Boston is the pitching staff. Since the beginning of June, the Red Sox sport the league’s best xERA (3.13) and its best FIP (3.37), and Sonny Gray is a huge reason why. The 36-year-old might be posting his lowest strikeout rate in seven years (21.9%), and an 83.1% strand rate might be due for a little regression, but at the end of the day, Gray’s registered a 2.78 ERA and a 3.52 FIP over 21 starts and 119.2 innings. He did surrender a season-high 10 hits to the Blue Jays when these two squads met back on July 25, yet Gray responded to some recent hiccups with six scoreless innings his last time out against the White Sox. There’s no way around it. The veteran RHP has been amazing with the Sox.
Unfortunately, not all veteran right-handed pitchers are created equally. Just ask Jameson Taillon. Designated for assignment by the Cubs last month, Taillon was brought to Toronto as a depth piece, and he now looks to be a rotation mainstay with Trey Yesavage (knee) back on the IL. The numbers for 2026 are not pretty. Among all pitchers with 80 innings thrown, the 34-year-old is surrendering the most home runs per nine (2.93) and he owns the highest HR/FB ratio (21.5%). Those underwhelming stats are sadly backed up by a horrific first percentile opponent barrel rate (15.2%). Taillon was very good in 2024 and serviceable in 2025. There’s a chance that he’s not completely washed, yet a career-low average fastball velocity is a bad, bad sign. This could be the end for the former second-overall pick.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-148)
I know they’re on the road, but I’m having a hard time figuring out how the Red Sox aren’t -200 on the moneyline tonight. Boston’s won its last five games away from Fenway and the team’s ace is on the mound in Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Jays are starting a pitcher with a first percentile opponent barrel rate (15.2%), and the club ranks dead-last in expected wOBA (.278) since the All-Star Break. Seems pretty cut and dry to me.
Strong Lean: Wilyer Abreu 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Abreu is hot at the dish. In his last six games, the outfielder has racked up four long balls and four multi-hit performances. Now he’ll get to face Jameson Taillon, who is surrendering a .391 wOBA to opposing LHBs.
