Even for the best, most battle-tested teams, a 162-game MLB regular season is a marathon, and there are always bound to be rough patches. The back-to-back World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves in one of those, as they’re on a six-game losing streak.
The Arizona Diamondbacks might’ve caught the Dodgers at the perfect time, as the teams’ three-game set begins tonight. This series is critical for Arizona, which currently holds onto the final NL Wild Card spot with two other teams within three games.
The series opener is set to begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. Los Angeles will turn to Roki Sasaki, and Merrill Kelly will start for the Diamondbacks.
Let’s break down this possible playoff preview with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets
- Race to 5 Runs – LA Dodgers (-110): Even with how bad the Dodgers’ bullpen has been since the All-Star break (5.37 ERA), it’s hardly a guarantee that Arizona will reach five runs at all, given how good Sasaki has been as of late. Los Angeles should be able to turn its offense around against the struggling Kelly.
- Shohei Ohtani 2+ Hits (+189): An eight-game stretch with a 1.523 OPS wouldn’t go unnoticed from almost any other player, but that’s how well Ohtani’s been seeing the ball as of late. Ohtani has a .320 batting average against the righty changeups Kelly loves to throw.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Thankfully for Dodgers fans, their form right now matters little, as they still hold an 8.5-game lead in the NL West and their likelihood of ultimately holding on to the division, per FanGraphs, currently rounds to 100%. True, Los Angeles is just 8-10 since the All-Star break, but it had a rough July stretch in each of the past two seasons and still managed to win the World Series in each. For all of their issues, the Dodgers still rank 10th in OPS since the All-Star break, and although losing both Will Smith and Dalton Rushing is concerning, veterans Ben Rortvedt and Hunter Feduccia can somewhat hold down the fort behind the plate until one of the others is ready to return. Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, and Andy Pages still provide enough offense to win, even though Pages has slumped lately. Los Angeles’ pitching has actually let it down since the All-Star break, as Ohtani hasn’t taken the mound while dealing with a knee injury and All-Star Justin Wrobleski has struggled, but with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the newly-acquired Tarik Skubal in the rotation, it probably isn’t a reason for long-term concern. The Dodgers’ bullpen has also been poor, but in a larger sample size, it’s unlikely that a unit that’s been league-average this season would suddenly turn into the equivalent of baseball’s second-worst.
Arizona, on the other hand, is peaking at the right time. The Diamondbacks were two games below .500 on July 8, but they’ve gone 16-8 since then, and they basically have a 50-50 chance at ultimately qualifying for the postseason. Since the All-Star break, Arizona has had a top-10 offense, a ranking more in line with its typical performance over the past few seasons and all the talent (Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, and Gabriel Moreno especially) on its roster. Veteran Lars Nootbaar, the Diamondbacks’ only trade deadline acquisition, should also help. Arizona has also had a slightly above-average rotation and a below-average bullpen. Although its relievers have struggled nearly as much as Los Angeles’ since the Midsummer Classic, at least it has three relievers with sub-3 ERA’s, so it isn’t completely a lost cause.
Sasaki has been a bright spot as of late for the Dodgers. While the Japanese youngster still doesn’t have the most impressive stats for the season as a whole (a 5-5 record and a 4.64 ERA across 19 starts), he’s posted a 2.25 ERA across his last four starts (24.0 innings). Advanced numbers suggest that his improvement was inevitable; he has a respectable 44th-percentile expected ERA. In particular, Sasaki has excelled at inducing chases and whiffs, so while the Diamondbacks have some of the best contact skills in the league, they could struggle more against him than usual. Plus, although Sasaki occasionally issues too many walks, Arizona hasn’t been very good at drawing free passes. He’s been hit hard, with a bottom-quintile barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, but the Diamondbacks have thrived on soft contact this season, which might not be sustainable against the champs’ elite fielders. Although the location splits aren’t in Sasaki’s favor — he has been slightly worse on the road and Arizona has been better at hitter-friendly Chase Field — I’d still back him for a solid night. He had a rough start at Chase Field last season, but FanGraphs’ Stuff+ metric underscores just how much he’s improved as a pitcher in the intervening period, even if his raw numbers haven’t shown it yet.
Kelly hasn’t been great this season, either. The Diamondbacks shipped him off to the Texas Rangers at last summer’s trade deadline before re-acquiring him in the offseason, and he’s pitched to just a 5.04 ERA in 20 starts. Although he had a sharp July, recording a 1.95 ERA across five starts, he’s coming off of a blow-up, giving up five runs in five innings in a loss on August 2. Advanced numbers unequivocally prefer Sasaki; Kelly’s 7.17 expected ERA and .305 expected batting average both rank in the first percentile, as does his negative-19 pitching run value. Additionally, the Dodgers are well-suited to mitigate his only strength, as he has an 85th-percentile chase rate and they have the fourth-most disciplined plate approach. Kelly’s second-percentile barrel rate and his sixth-percentile hard-hit rate could prove problematic against Los Angeles’ powerful lineup, and while he does have baseball’s third-best fielding lineup behind him, a 19th-percentile whiff rate is never good. Plus, Kelly has been utterly atrocious at home, recording a 6.33 ERA in eight starts, and the Dodgers have been 41 OPS points better than any other team on the road. He last faced this team in this venue on August 31, 2024, giving up 10 hits and six runs (four earned) in just 5.1 innings of work.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Best Bet: Race to 5 Runs – LA Dodgers (-110)
To be fair, Los Angeles has only even reached five runs twice in its losing streak, and in both instances, its opponent reached that mark first. However, Kelly is a matchup tailor-made for the Dodgers’ bats to get back on track, and Sasaki genuinely seems to have turned a corner.
Strong Lean: Shohei Ohtani 2+ Hits (+189)
Ohtani has not been Los Angeles’ problem throughout the losing streak, as in his last eight games, he’s posted a .484/.556/.968 slash line as his MVP race against Pete Crow-Armstrong heats up. He’s had five two-hit games in that stretch.
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