Because six of each league’s teams have made the MLB Playoffs every season since the postseason expanded in 2022, the St. Louis Cardinals, who last made the playoffs that season, actually have the fifth-longest active drought in the NL. It’s a streak that seems likely to extend to four seasons in 2026, as they sit 3.5 games behind the final NL Wild Card spot.
On Friday, St. Louis will begin a three-game home set against a team that is virtually certain to extend its postseason drought to eight seasons, the second-longest in the NL. The Colorado Rockies have the worst record on the Senior Circuit for the fourth consecutive campaign.
The series opener is set to begin at 8:15 p.m. ET. Ryan Feltner will start for Colorado, and Kyle Leahy will get the call for St. Louis.
Let’s break down this clash of potential Wild Cards with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bets
- Under 8.5 (-102): Four of the Cardinals’ last five games have gone under the total because their offense (especially Jordan Walker) has completely fallen off a cliff, and while three of the Rockies’ last five have gone over, they’re far worse on the road.
- St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+119): Leahy has posted a 1.21 ERA in his last seven starts, and although there’s some luck involved with that, Colorado at sea level is a pretty easy test. The Rockies have lost three straight games by multiple runs.
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
Despite the Rockies’ poor record, including a disappointing 6-11 mark since the All-Star break, this season has represented solid progress for a team that narrowly avoided setting the single-season loss record in 2025. In fact, Colorado has the fifth-best offense for the season as a whole, including the 12th-best mark after the All-Star break. If that ranking holds, it’ll be the Rockies’ best finish since 2017, and it speaks to the promise that the young core of Hunter Goodman, TJ Rumfeld, Kyle Karros, Cole Carrigg, and Mickey Moniak have. All that remains is for Colorado to develop a league-average pitching staff, but with baseball’s worst rotation and third-worst bullpen, it hasn’t done that. Even there, though, the Rockies have at least had some bright spots, as Tomoyuki Sugano has proven to be a solid signing, as has Brennan Bernardino. Still, Colorado took a step back at the trade deadline, trading away starter-turned-closer Antonio Senzatela, so the rebuild will continue.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, were in solid position to make the playoffs through the All-Star break, as they entered the pause with a 50-45 record and roughly a one-in-three chance to ultimately qualify. However, they’ve struggled since, going just 7-13 and picking up just one series win. In particular, St. Louis’ offense has fallen off, as it ranks just 27th in OPS, with rookie sensation JJ Wetherholt hitting a bit of a wall and breakout star and Home Run Derby champ Jordan Walker slashing just .240/.288/.293 without a homer. Additionally, the Cardinals haven’t been able to make up for it with their pitching as of late, as their bullpen has posted an ERA north of 5 since the All-Star break. Gordon Graceffo has given up a run in two of his last five outings and George Soriano has conceded one in two of his last three.With its playoff hopes dwindling, St. Louis was a moderate seller at the trade deadline, shipping veterans Lars Nootbaar and Dustin May off.
Feltner has been one of the Rockies’ better pitching options, but that’s mostly because Kyle Freeland and Michael Lorenzen have both been below-replacement level this season. In 16 starts, the right-hander has pitched to a 5.75 ERA, although he’s been in rough form since the start of July, posting an 8.75 ERA across five appearances and giving up at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts. Feltner also has a 5.62 xERA, just a sixth-percentile figure, as well as an 18th-percentile expected batting average. While he has some strengths, such as a 70th-percentile average exit velocity, he’s really struggled to incentivize chases, and the Cardinals are more disciplined than the average team. Additionally, Feltner has just a seventh-percentile barrel rate, which could help mitigate one of St. Louis’ biggest weaknesses. Despite not finding the barrel very often, the Cardinals do have the sixth-highest hard-hit rate, and Feltner’s ranks in just the 34th percentile. Unlike most Colorado pitchers, Feltner has actually been worse this season away from Coors Field, although St. Louis has had baseball’s second-worst offense at home this season.
Leahy should have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup. He’s totaled a 3.44 ERA in his 21 starts, but he’s been especially stellar as of late, giving up two or fewer earned runs in each of his last seven starts and pitching to a 1.21 mark over that span. Still, advanced stats suggest he’s gotten extremely lucky, as he ranks in only the 13th percentile in expected ERA and the 10th in expected batting average. Leahy has been especially susceptible to hard hits, with a second-percentile hard-hit rate, a second-percentile average exit velocity, and a 12th-percentile barrel rate, but the Rockies rank among the league’s bottom four in each of those stats. One of his few strengths is his 66th-percentile ground ball rate, which could be an asset against Colorado, given that the Rockies do an excellent job getting the ball up. Plus, Leahy has a sub-3 ERA at home this season, and Colorado has, per usual, been far less effective on the road.
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-102)
While I’m not that confident in Feltner, I’m hesitant to back the Rockies’ offense away from home, and the Cardinals’ offensive struggles, both at Busch Stadium and since the All-Star break overall, are notable as well.
Strong Lean: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+119)
Given how strong Leahy has been in recent weeks and how poor Feltner has been, this could be an especially difficult test for Colorado. His supporting cast hasn’t turned those stellar performances into multi-run wins, but he’s rarely faced an easier matchup than this.
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