BvP. It’s maybe the most polarizing stat in the world of daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting.
While it would seem obvious that a batter’s history with a specific pitcher would be incredibly important and useful information, BvP numbers laugh in the face of sample size. They not only make us draw conclusions from an amount of at-bats that could take place over the course of two or three games, but remember, those games could have happened a half decade ago.
That said, I’d want to know if someone has a couple home runs of a starter that’s pitching tonight. Who wouldn’t?
In this space, I’ll attempt to toe the line between BvP love and hate. Let’s look at some matchups and see if history really is going to mean success on tonight’s slate.
Top BvP Matchups Today
| Batter | Pitcher | Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | Robbie Ray (SD) | .550/.640/1.100 – 1.740 OPS |
| Starling Marte (KC) | Kevin Gausman (CHC) | .533/.611/.933 – 1.544 OPS |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) | .538/.538/.615 – 1.154 OPS |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | Kevin Gausman (CHC) | .333/.333/.800 – 1.133 OPS |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | Drew Rasmussen (TB) | .300/.300/.800 – 1.100 OPS |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | Merrill Kelly (ARI) | .410/.500/.590 – 1.090 OPS |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | Merrill Kelly (ARI) | .313/.405/.656 – .1.062 OPS |
| Miguel Rojas (LAD) | Merrill Kelly (ARI) | .368/.368/.579 – .947 OPS |
| Jesus Sanchez (TOR) | Zack Wheeler (PHI) | .360/.385/.560 – .945 OPS |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | Merrill Kelly (ARI) | .237/.326/.579 – .905 OPS |
**Minimum 10 at-bats**
BvP Matchup Analysis
Jose Altuve vs. Robbie Ray | 1.740 OPS (20 ABs)
Robbie Ray hasn’t spent a ton of time in the American League in his career, yet he’s still managed to run into Jose Altuve a fair amount. Heck, maybe Altuve’s presence is keeping him in the NL, because Houston’s long-time second baseman absolutely has the upper hand when this pair has met in the past. It makes sense. Altuve is a career .322 hitter against left-handed pitching. He’s also got a 146 wRC+ within the split. He hits all southpaws well — not just Ray. That said, Friday night might be the rare occasion that I’ll side with Ray. Set to make his debut with the Padres, Ray owns a sparkling 1.09 ERA dating back to June 16.
Gunnar Henderson vs. Nathan Eovaldi | 1.154 OPS (13 ABs)
Here’s a funny twist on this BvP matchup. Henderson actually came into 2026 7-for-10 (.700) off Eovaldi in their careers, but the former All-Star went 0-for-3 when he faced the right-hander back on April 1. That’s a small example of how BvP numbers aren’t always indicative of the future. It’s also a telling aspect of Henderson’s struggles this season, in general. Once a consistent MVP candidate, Henderson has regressed, slashing a putrid .218/.297/.393 with a career-low 94 wRC+. Also, if you like small samples, Henderson is hitting just .182 with a .650 OPS in his 79 plate appearances since the All-Star break. Yikes.
Max Muncy vs. Merrill Kelly | 1.090 OPS (39 ABs)
If you look at the list above, you’ll see a whole lot of Merrill Kelly. There’s a couple of reasons for that. First and foremost, Kelly’s spent a lot of time with the Diamondbacks in the NL West, and he’s had to face the Dodgers a lot. You might not know this, but Los Angeles tends to employ some very good hitters, hitters like Muncy, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. I’ll often say “the distant past doesn’t matter” when referencing BvP stats, but it’s impressive that Muncy has 16 hits off Kelly in his career, as the RHP was once an above-average rotation piece. That is no longer the case. Kelly comes into this start with a first percentile xERA in 2026 (7.17) and a second percentile opponent barrel rate (13.2%). Stack the Dodgers everywhere. BvP forever!
