With just under two months left in the MLB season, the league remains as wide-open as ever. Only three teams in each league are realistically out of postseason contention, as while the Washington Nationals (who have the fourth-worst record in the NL) are five and a half games behind the final Wild Card spot, teams have made up bigger deficits at this point in the season before.
On Friday night, the Nationals will begin a three-game home set against the Cincinnati Reds, who, at 56-58, are also a long-shot playoff participant, four games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The series opener is set to begin at 6:45 p.m. ET. Chase Petty will open for the Reds in a bullpen game, and Cade Cavalli will get the call for the Nationals.
Let’s break down this clash of potential Wild Cards with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals Best Bets
- Washington Nationals Moneyline (-113): Even though Cincinnati’s bullpen has been in better form since the All-Star break, its best reliever will likely be unavailable, so I’d prefer Cavalli over any of the Reds’ available options.
- Cade Cavalli O17.5 Outs Recorded (-106): Cavalli has completed the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts, and Washington’s bullpen is somewhat battered after an extra innings affair on Wednesday.
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals prediction, preview
At the All-Star break, Cincinnati pretty much had no chance, as a poor run in June and the early part of July saw it drop from 30-28 to 43-52. Since then, though, the Reds have gone 13-6, including three consecutive one-run wins against the Athletics, and if they continue this hot form for the rest of the season, they could make some noise. Across that span, Cincinnati’s offense has heated up, as it ranks a solid 11th in OPS, with Elly De La Cruz posting a .931 mark and Sal Stewart (.861) chipping in as well, and although it still has five regulars with negative WAR, its tremendous top two could keep it afloat. Additionally, the Reds have had an above-average pitching staff since the Midsummer Classic, as their bullpen has especially stepped up. Brock Burke and Tejay Antone have been rather reliable this season, and trading Caleb Ferguson at the trade deadline probably isn’t too big a deal, given that Ferguson had just a 4.01 ERA in 24.2 innings.
Washington has gone the other way after the All-Star break. The Nationals entered the Midsummer Classic around .500 but have gone just 8-12 since, which impacted their strategy at the trade deadline. There are plenty of promising signs regardless; Washington has had the fifth-best offense since the All-Star break and has a pair of legitimate superstars in the currently-injured James Wood, who leads all of baseball in runs and walks, and CJ Abrams, who paces MLB in RBI’s. Luis García Jr. (the NL leader in slugging percentage) and Curtis Mead are big losses, but the offensive future is bright nonetheless. The Nationals’ pitching has been an issue, as they rank fifth-to-last in ERA since the Midsummer Classic, and they shook up their squad by trading ace Foster Griffin to the Cleveland Guardians, but Connelly Early should help their rotation once he debuts and Yovanny Cruz could help their bullpen. A playoff push looks unlikely, especially if Wood misses more than the minimum 10 days, but Washington is set up well for the future.
Petty at least has experience providing some length, as he made two starts (pitching to a 5.91 ERA) in the majors and 10 starts in the minors, most recently on June 4. He also hasn’t pitched since July 29, so it’s possible that he could make it through three innings or so, and he’s been solid as a reliever, registering a 3.72 ERA. Beyond Petty, Burke is probably out since he’s pitched each of the last two days, but Antone has thrown just six pitches since August 2 and should be available. Rookie Julian Garcia and veteran Sam Moll could also be options, since Moll threw just six pitches yesterday and Garcia hasn’t pitched since Tuesday. Still, without Burke, Cincinnati’s options are thin. As a staff, the Reds have allowed among the league’s highest barrel rates and average exit velocities, and while Wood’s absence won’t help, the Nationals have a lineup full of mashers. Additionally, Cincinnati’s pitchers issue walks at the third-highest rate, and Washington, even without Wood, earns plenty of free passes. The Reds have also pitched worse on the road this season, and the Nationals have been more effective offensively at home.
Cavalli, meanwhile, has had a strong third season. He has a 3.52 across an MLB-leading 24 starts, and he’s been especially sharp across his last 10, giving up three or fewer earned runs in each and pitching to a 3.06 mark. In fact, Cavalli has been almost wholly immune to blow-ups, allowing four earned runs just twice. Advanced numbers suggest that he’s gotten a bit lucky, as he has just a 4.04 expected ERA, but he has plenty of strengths and relatively few notable weaknesses. Cavalli combines a low walk rate with a high strikeout rate, a critical asset against a Cincinnati team that has both walked and struck out frequently, and he’s also been above-average at inducing chases, which could frustrate the Reds’ disciplined approach. Plus, he’s been elite at inducing grounders, mitigating one of Cincinnati’s biggest strengths. He does have just a 39th-percentile average exit velocity, which could be a problem against a Reds lineup that has recorded the second-hardest hits this season, but I’d still expect a decent performance. Both Cavalli and Cincinnati’s offense have performed somewhat consistently regardless of location.
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Washington Nationals Moneyline (-113)
It’s hard to gauge the Reds’ pitching plan because Petty hasn’t pitched in a while, but their bullpen depth isn’t great, and with Burke unavailable, that’s putting a lot of faith into the relatively untested Garcia. Cavalli is at least a reliable option.
Strong Lean: Cade Cavalli O17.5 Outs Recorded (-106)
Cavalli has completed the sixth inning in each of his last five starts and seven of his last eight, and while Cincinnati’s patient plate approach means it sees the eighth-most pitches per plate appearance, Cavalli peppers the zone at a slightly higher rate than the Reds are used to.
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