What has long been suspected — feared, even — around MLB is now official. Tarik Skubal, the back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner, is now a Los Angeles Dodger. He could be the final piece of a puzzle that all but promises to deliver the Dodgers their third straight World Series crown.
Skubal is expected to make his debut for Los Angeles in the middle game of a road series against the Chicago Cubs, with Javier Assad opposing him. The game is set to begin at 8:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s break down this highly-anticipated matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Best Bets
- Chicago Cubs U3.5 Runs (-125): Skubal’s opponent has only scored four or more runs six times in his 16 starts this season, and despite what they’ve shown over the last two weeks, the Dodgers’ bullpen should be considered more trustworthy than the Tigers’.
- Tarik Skubal 4 or Fewer Hits Allowed (+101): To be fair, the Cubs have recorded baseball’s fifth-highest batting average since the All-Star break, but Skubal is Skubal, and Los Angeles has some excellent fielders to back him up.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs prediction, preview
For all of the shockwaves that the Dodgers’ moves have sent throughout the league, they’ve looked vincible as of late. Los Angeles is just 8-11 in its last 19 games and has lost four in a row, including a sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers’ offense — which ranks first in OPS for the season as a whole — ranks just 10th in that stat. Shohei Ohtani, who’s been dealing with a knee injury, hasn’t quite looked up to his usual standards (though he’s still been good), and Mookie Betts has hit below the Mendoza Line since the start of July. Additionally, Los Angeles has actually had baseball’s seventh-worst pitching staff since the All-Star break, since Ohtani hasn’t been able to pitch, Justin Wrobleski has put together back-to-back disastrous starts, and Emmet Sheehan was bad enough to be optioned to the minors. The Dodgers’ bullpen also has an ERA north of 5 across that span. Skubal and fellow new acquisition Kris Bubic weren’t a necessity, but they’ll help steady a unit that has been shaky over the last couple of weeks.
The Cubs have been the much better team since the All-Star break, and despite a span of 14 losses in 16 games in May, they’re just five games behind Los Angeles in the overall standings. Since the Midsummer Classic, Chicago has had the seventh-best offense, and Pete Crow-Armstrong (.930 OPS across that span) has narrowed the gap with Ohtani in the NL MVP race. Seiya Suzuki has been even better, posting a 1.015 OPS since the All-Star break. Additionally, the Cubs’ pitching has been lights-out since the All-Star break, as their 2.72 ERA is 0.34 runs per nine innings better than the next-best team. Chicago, too, bolstered its rotation at the trade deadline, dealing away the struggling Jameson Taillon, who’d been a weak link in its rotation this season, and bringing in Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes.
There’s no reason Skubal shouldn’t be able to hit the ground running with his new team. He hasn’t been quite as untouchable this season as he was in 2024 or 2025, but a 2.79 ERA over 16 starts is still pretty brilliant, and he’s pitched to a 1.95 ERA across his last five starts. No pitcher has better control than he does, as he led all of baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio last season and has an even better mark so far in 2026. Unsurprisingly, advanced numbers paint a very positive picture of him, as he ranks in the 89th percentile in expected ERA and the 94th in pitching run value. Skubal especially excels at inducing chases, whiffs, and strikeouts while avoiding walks, ranking in the top decile in all of those stats, which should help mitigate some of the Cubs’ biggest strengths. He’s been comparatively more prone to giving up significant damage this season, ranking in just the 50th percentile in barrel rate, but Chicago actually ranks seventh-to-last in barrel rate. Plus, the southpaw has been even better on the road this season, pitching to a 2.05 ERA, although the Cubs have been slightly better at home.
Assad has been in and out of the rotation this season, but regardless of what role he’s pitched in, he’s been pretty good since the start of May, posting a 2.31 ERA across six starts and seven relief appearances in that span. Including his rough April outings, he’s been slightly better as a starter overall. Still, he’s gettable, ranking in only the 30th percentile in expected ERA and the 16th in expected batting average. He’s struggled everywhere Skubal truly excels, as he has only first-percentile chase and whiff rates, a problem against a Dodgers team that neither chases nor whiffs frequently. Additionally, Assad ranks in just the sixth percentile in hard-hit rate, and Los Angeles is a team full of mashers, ranking seventh in that stat. Chicago’s elite fielders, which have been the best in baseball this season, should help, but even with the Dodgers’ lineup in cold form, Assad could be in for a tough test. He’s been a lot better at home, but no team has been more impressive on the road than Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Chicago Cubs U3.5 Total Runs (-125)
This is putting a lot of faith in a Dodgers bullpen that possibly doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt, but I’d expect Skubal to make it through at least six innings relatively cleanly, taking a lot of pressure off of Los Angeles’ relievers. Their better relievers are well-rested, especially since Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched all but one inning on Saturday.
Strong Lean: Tarik Skubal 4 or Fewer Hits Allowed (+101)
This is basically a pure toss-up, as Skubal has allowed four or fewer hits in eight of his 16 starts this season, but given how good the Dodgers’ fielders are, they should be a good matchup against the Cubs’ soft contact. Chicago ranks just 22nd in expected batting average.
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