In recent seasons, both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Houston Astros have been major powers in the American League. After all, Toronto is just coming off of a pennant and Houston was last in the Fall Classic in 2022. However, both have had relatively disappointing 2026 campaigns.
The Astros will enter their three-game series this evening in the better position, but neither is a realistic title contender, and the Blue Jays, even after trading for José Soriano, are likely to miss the playoffs.
In each team’s first game after the trade deadline, which will begin at 8:10 p.m. ET, Toronto will turn to last season’s midseason acquisition, Shane Bieber, and Houston will start Cristian Javier.
Let’s break down this cross-border battle with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros Best Bets
- Houston Astros -1.5 (+149): Three of the Astros’ past four games have finished in multi-run wins, and all nine of the Blue Jay’s losses since the All-Star break have come by multiple runs. Especially with the slumping Bieber on the mound, I trust Houston’s offense in this one.
- Yordan Alvarez 2+ Total Bases (-121): Alvarez might not be the hitter with the highest OPS on his own team since the All-Star break, but he’s still had at least two total bases in 10 of those 15 games, and he has a .791 xSLG against the right-handed four-seamers Bieber loves to throw.
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros prediction, preview
Headed into the All-Star break, the Blue Jays already looked to be in a precarious position, as they were just 45-51, but instead of heating up after the Midsummer Classic like they did last season, they’ve fallen off further, going just 7-9, and their odds of making the playoffs have fallen to 6.1%. Stunningly, Toronto has had one of baseball’s worst offenses, and it hasn’t done anything to improve since the All-Star break, ranking fourth-to-last in OPS. Basically every offensive star besides Ernie Clement, who leads the AL in doubles, and rookie Kazuma Okamoto, has disappointed. Additionally, while the Blue Jays have had decent pitching, they don’t have a lot of depth on the mound, as Kevin Gausman disappointed before they traded him and they don’t have a ton of options around Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers in the bullpen. Soriano should help, both for the rest of this season and for the next two.
The Astros, on the other hand, have hit their stride at the right time. Houston started with three losses after the trade deadline to drop to 47-54, but since then, it’s won 11 of its last 12 games to vault into the AL West lead, and it has a 57.0% chance to make the playoffs now. The Astros’ bats have heated up, as they’ve had the league’s fourth-best OPS since the Midsummer Classic, with Yordan Alvarez effectively running away with the AL MVP and Jeremy Peña slashing .433/.469/.867 over his last 14 games. For the full season, Houston’s rotation has been baseball’s third-worst, as Hunter Brown has missed lots of time due to injury and Tatsuya Imai has looked like a completely different pitcher than he was in Japan, but it’s been somewhat better in the second half, and the bullpen has been lights-out. Closer Josh Hader has been as good as ever, and Steven Okert has been a reliable set-up man. So far, the Astros have had a quiet deadline, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a new starter before 6 p.m. ET hits.
Bieber has been one of the most disappointing players on Toronto’s roster this season. The 2020 Cy Young Award winner missed most of the 2024 and 2025 seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery and is coming off of a disaster, giving up four earned runs on six walks and one hit while recording just two outs against the Washington Nationals last Tuesday. When he’s been on, he’s still shown some flashes, such as a seven-inning, one-run outing against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 23, but overall, advanced stats don’t look upon him kindly, as his 7.53 expected ERA would be in the league’s bottom decile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. Additionally, Bieber’s strikeout and walk rates would both be among the league’s worst, and Houston has been above-average in both of those facets. Plus, Bieber has given up plenty of hard hits and barrels, so Alvarez and Peña should be able to feast. His only real strength this season has been his ability to induce grounders, but the Astros have gotten the ball up at a league-average rate. To make matters worse, two of his three roughest starts have come on the road, and in his only previous matchup against Houston this season, he gave up four runs in 3.2 innings.
Javier hasn’t had the strongest season, either, recording a 7.17 ERA across four starts and four relief appearances. To be fair, he’s gotten better after a rehab stint in the minors, pitching to a 3.00 across 12.0 innings, including five innings of three-hit, shutout ball last Monday against the Los Angeles Angels. Like Bieber, Javier isn’t qualified for league leaderboards, but his 5.59 expected ERA is better than his actual mark. He, too, would rank in the bottom decile in walk rate if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, but only one team has walked less frequently than the Blue Jays, and Javier’s rough early-season starts, when he was dealing with a shoulder strain, skew those numbers somewhat. Though Javier hasn’t been great at minimizing hard hits this season, he has been in the past, and Toronto has been one of baseball’s softest-hitting teams. Javier also has a sub-3 ERA at home for his career, and the Blue Jays have been even more atrocious offensively on the road.
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Houston Astros -1.5 (+149)
It’s a tiny sample size, but Bieber has been awful this season, especially on the road, and the Astros’ offense has been excellent since the All-Star break. Javier isn’t a much better pitcher than Bieber, but his stats are skewed by an early-season injury while Bieber’s aren’t.
Strong Lean: Yordan Alvarez 2+ Total Bases (-121)
Since the All-Star break, Alvarez has turned up his game yet another level, recording a 1.295 OPS, and he’s recorded two or more total bases in 10 of 15 games across that span, including in each of his past three.
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