Trade Deadline day gives Monday’s home run card a different kind of volatility. The 2026 deadline closes at 6 p.m. ET, leaving rotations, lineups, and bullpens unsettled until late afternoon. A starter can disappear from the board. A reliever can leave an already thin bullpen. A contender can add protection behind a power bat. Every move changes plate-appearance quality and the pitchers available after the fifth inning.
That uncertainty makes pitch-specific form especially valuable. Today’s targets are already lifting and barreling the pitches their opposing starters use most often. Recent hard-hit rate, blast rate, pulled barrels, and fly-ball shape identify swings ready to finish mistakes. Season-long ISO, xSLG, adjusted xHR, and park conditions then establish whether that form has support. The deadline creates noise, but the handicap stays disciplined: pitch volume, pitch vulnerability, contact quality, environment, and price. A home run still begins with one hitter meeting one mistake at the exact point his swing can punish it.
As always, I’m here with a breakdown on my three favorite picks from today’s slate of games to swat one out.
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Odds | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice to hit a home run | +295 | Michael McGreevy brings a 5.66 xERA, 90.2 mph EV allowed, 42.6% hard hits, 10.5% barrels, and a cutter surrendering a .364 AVG, .591 SLG, .610 xSLG, and .434 xwOBA into Yankee Stadium, where Rice owns 31 HR, a .915 OPS, 92.1 mph EV, 48.3% hard-hit rate, 15.7% barrels, and 45 total barrels, while his last 10 cutter balls produced 70% hard hits, 50% blasts, 20% barrels, two homers, and 40% fly balls ahead of an 82-degree evening built for left-handed pull power. |
| Brandon Lowe to hit a home run | +340 | Lowe enters Milwaukee at +377 with 23 HR, a .235 ISO, .491 SLG, 90.9 mph EV, 45.1% hard hits, and 12.3% barrels, after turning his last 10 four-seam balls into 80% hard hits, 70% blasts, 40% barrels, and 30% pulled barrels, drawing Brandon Sproat’s 5.05 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 11.6% walk rate, 43.2% hard-hit rate, and 17 HR allowed, including a 96.7 mph four-seamer yielding 44.6% hard contact and a .393 xSLG that meets Lowe’s .611 SLG, .627 xSLG, .405 xwOBA, and 56.3% hard-hit rate against four-seamers. |
| Wyatt Langford to hit a home run | +475 | Two homers, 67% hard hits, 33% blasts, 33% barrels, 33% pulled barrels, and 67% fly balls across Langford’s last six changeup contacts create the longshot case at +525, supported by his .545 SLG, .506 xSLG, .345 xwOBA, and 46.7% hard-hit rate against changeups, but Logan Webb counters with a 3.93 ERA, 3.93 xERA, 1.12 WHIP, 53.4% ground balls, 5.6% barrels allowed, and a 25.4%-usage changeup holding hitters to a .322 SLG, .338 xSLG, .286 xwOBA, 33.3% hard contact, and 28.9% whiffs beneath Globe Life Field’s likely closed roof. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB home run props today: analysis
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+295)
Ben Rice owns the highest modeled home-run probability on this board, and his underlying power fully supports that placement. His last 10 cutter balls in play produced 70% hard hits, 50% blasts, 20% barrels, and two home runs. Rice also carried a 40% fly-ball rate within that sample, keeping enough authoritative contact in the air.
That pitch-specific form sits inside one of baseball’s strongest complete power profiles. Rice enters Monday batting .266 with 31 homers, 73 RBI, and a .915 OPS across 399 at-bats. Statcast credits him with a 92.1 mph average exit velocity, 48.3% hard hits, and 15.7% barrels. His 45 barrels rank sixth in the majors. Rice can punish a vulnerable pitch without relying upon a temporary contact spike.
Michael McGreevy’s cutter creates the opening. He uses it 11.6% of the time at 87.1 mph. Opponents own a .364 average and .591 slugging percentage against it. The expected numbers look worse at .610 xSLG and .434 xwOBA. The cutter generates only 16.1% whiffs and an 8.3% strikeout rate. McGreevy’s entire profile carries more danger than his 3.57 ERA suggests. His 5.66 xERA and .499 xSLG allowed both indicate heavier damage. He has also allowed 90.2 mph contact, 42.6% hard hits, and 10.5% barrels. Yankee Stadium strengthens Rice’s left-handed pull path. First-pitch conditions project near 82 degrees after afternoon thunderstorms, with improving weather throughout the evening. The screen prices Rice near +326 fair value, making +310 slightly expensive. The exceptional hitter-pitcher fit still supports a smaller position.
Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+340)
Brandon Lowe’s recent swing shape fits Brandon Sproat’s arsenal better than any matchup on this board. Lowe owns 80% hard hits, 70% blasts, 40% barrels, and 30% pulled barrels across 10 relevant four-seam balls. Four reached barrel quality, while three combined elite contact with pull-side flight. That is the exact contact path required for a left-handed homer.
The larger sample supports the heater-specific surge. Lowe enters Monday batting .257 with 23 homers, 71 RBI, a .491 slugging percentage, and a .235 ISO. His full-season contact includes a 90.9 mph exit velocity, 45.1% hard hits, and 12.3% barrels. Lowe also owns a 34.1% fly-ball rate. Another 30.0% of his airborne contact travels toward the pull side. Against four-seamers, Lowe owns a .611 slugging percentage, .627 xSLG, .405 xwOBA, and 56.3% hard-hit rate.
Sproat enters with a 5.05 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and an 11.6% walk rate. He has also allowed 43.2% hard hits and 9.0% barrels. His 96.7 mph four-seamer appears 24.6% of the time and has surrendered 44.6% hard contact. Its .393 xSLG sits above its .345 actual slugging percentage. Sproat’s cutter has been punished for a .709 slugging percentage across another 22.2% of his arsenal. Milwaukee projects sunny conditions around 74 degrees, with the retractable roof decision still pending. The model assigns Lowe a 23.0% homer probability, near +335 fair value. The available +377 supplies the board’s strongest price edge.
Wyatt Langford to hit a home run (+475)
Wyatt Langford qualifies through one of Monday’s loudest recent pitch-specific samples. Across six changeup balls in play, he has produced 67% hard hits, 33% blasts, 33% barrels, and 33% pulled barrels. Two became home runs, while 67% left his bat as fly balls. Every barrel was pulled, giving each one maximum home-run efficiency.
The season-long changeup numbers offer further encouragement. Langford owns a .545 slugging percentage, .506 xSLG, .345 xwOBA, and 46.7% hard-hit rate against the pitch. He enters Monday batting .272 with 13 homers, 31 RBI, seven steals, and an .819 OPS. However, his overall contact remains lighter than the other candidates. Langford carries an 89.7 mph average exit velocity, 39.0% hard hits, and an 8.8% barrel rate. His six-ball sample can therefore move sharply with one additional result.
Logan Webb also throws an unusually effective version of the target pitch. His changeup accounts for 25.4% of his arsenal, ensuring Langford should see it. Opponents have managed only a .322 slugging percentage, .338 xSLG, and .286 xwOBA against Webb’s changeup. It generates 28.9% whiffs while allowing 33.3% hard contact. Webb owns a 3.93 ERA, matching 3.93 xERA, and a 1.12 WHIP. He has limited opponents to 88.4 mph contact and a 5.6% barrel rate. Arlington will reach roughly 100 degrees, although Globe Life Field’s retractable roof will likely remove that heat from the equation. The model assigns Langford a 13.2% homer probability, near +658 fair value. At +525, the price demands too much from a six-ball surge against an accomplished contact suppressor.
