NFL futures betting offers several ways to find value before the regular season begins, from division winners and conference champions to season win totals and player props. Betting splits provide another layer of information by showing where both the betting public and larger wagers are landing, helping identify which futures are drawing the most interest.
Below are the best AFC East bets for the 2026 NFL season, complete with current odds, DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits, why each market is attracting action and my analysis on every wager.
AFC East Best Bets and Betting Splits
| Bet | Odds | Bets % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills to Win the AFC East | -136 | 74% | 72% |
| Patriots to Win the AFC | +760 | 8% | 7% |
| Dolphins Under 4.5 Wins | -146 | 77% | 77% |
| Garrett Wilson Over 999.5 Receiving Yards | -110 | 90% | 72% |
| Josh Allen Over 11.5 Rushing Touchdowns | +100 | 65% | 53% |
Best AFC East Division Bet
Bills to Win the AFC East (-136)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 74% |
| Handle | 72% |
Why bettors are backing the Bills
Despite the Patriots winning the AFC East last season, bettors are all over the Bills to reclaim the AFC East crown. Prior to last season, the Bills had won the division five years in a row from 2020-2024. The Patriots will have a much tougher schedule this season, and there could be a bit of a step back from New England. Meanwhile, the Bills have maintained an incredibly high ceiling with Josh Allen at the helm.
Analysis
The Bills are the deserving favorite to snatch back the AFC East crown. They have been the clear top team in this division this decade. The Patriots had an incredible season in 2025-26, winning 14 games and making the Super Bowl. However, the Super Bowl loser often sees regression in the following season. Meanwhile, the Bills still have Josh Allen, which means they are still the team to beat in the East. The Bills finally don’t have to play a first-place schedule, which should help them get their crown back.
Best AFC East Conference Future
Patriots to Win the AFC (+760)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 8% |
| Handle | 7% |
Why bettors are backing the Patriots
The Patriots are the defending champions of the AFC. However, it will be a tall task for them to replicate the magic of last season, especially with the high level of competition in the conference. The Patriots are +760 to make it back to the Super Bowl, the third-best odds behind the Bills and the Ravens. However, the Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals, Broncos and Texans are all in the same odds range as New England. That is a tough road to get back to the Super Bowl, which is why just 8% of customers are backing the Patriots at this price.
Analysis
It’s hard to see New England getting back to the Super Bowl. Last season, it was crucial for the Patriots to win the AFC East. Getting to host both the Chargers and Texans in the first two rounds of the postseason was a massive boost to get the Patriots to the AFC Championship Game. Those two offenses were flaccid on the road, and New England was able to move on despite shaky offensive performances. Then, in the AFC Championship Game, they were able to play a Broncos squad that was without Bo Nix.
Last season, New England avoided the three best quarterbacks in the conference, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. It is statistically unlikely that they would get that easy of a path again. Additionally, the Patriots are underdogs to win the AFC East this season. If New England has to go on the road against those top quarterbacks, it will be a massive challenge to get back to the Super Bowl. At this price, they are not worth a bet to win the conference.
Best AFC East Win Total Bet
Dolphins Under 4.5 Wins (-146)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 77% |
| Handle | 77% |
Why bettors are taking the under
77% of bettors are backing the Dolphins to win fewer than 4.5 games. This is the beginning of a new era for Miami. Tua Tagovailoa is out, Mike McDaniel is out, Tyreek Hill is out and Jaylen Waddle is off to a new team. This Dolphins team looks completely different, with Malik Willis expected to start at quarterback and Jeff Hafley as the new head coach. The betting public is not confident in that group winning games this season.
Analysis
The Dolphins are +350 to finish with the fewest wins in the NFL this season, the second-best odds in the league, behind only the Cardinals. They are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, with an unproven head coach and an unproven quarterback. Miami is also in a tough division, with the Patriots and Bills as two of the best teams in the AFC and the Jets expected to be more competitive than last season.
Best AFC East Player Prop Bets
Garrett Wilson Over 999.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 90% |
| Handle | 72% |
Why bettors are backing the over
Garrett Wilson has been one of the best receivers in the league since getting drafted in 2022. Last season, Wilson suffered the first real injury of his career and only played in seven games. He also missed more time because of the lack of competitiveness from the Jets as a team. This season, Wilson will hopefully stay healthy and get back to his high level. Another factor that has bettors confident in Wilson ahead of this season is the addition of Geno Smith at quarterback.
Analysis
In each of his first three seasons in the NFL, Garrett Wilson played in all 17 games and recorded over 1,000 receiving yards. That is despite some really poor quarterback play over that stretch. Last season, injuries prevented him from hitting that mark again. However, if Wilson stays healthy this season, there is no reason he shouldn’t get back to his 1,000-yard-season level. Over his first three seasons in the NFL, Wilson ranked 10th in the NFL in receiving yards.
The Jets brought in Geno Smith to be their new (and old) QB1. While Smith had a bad season in Las Vegas in 2024-25, he has been one of the highest-volume passers in the NFL over the past few seasons. Since 2022, Smith ranks fifth in the NFL In passing yards. This should be a pass-heavy Jets offense and Wilson will be the primary target. If he’s healthy, he should get over this mark.
Josh Allen Over 11.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+100)
| Betting Splits | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Bets | 65% |
| Handle | 53% |
Why bettors are backing the over
Josh Allen is one of the best players in football. He has become nearly unstoppable in the red zone because of what he can do with his arm and his legs. Allen almost always finds a way to get the ball in the end zone. 65% of bettors are backing him to get over 11.5 rushing touchdowns this season, but some bigger bettors are taking the other side.
Analysis
Josh Allen started getting heavily utilized as a runner near the end zone during the 2023-24 season. He has consistently been an elite rusher in every season since then. Since the beginning of that 2023 season, only Derrick Henry has more rushing touchdowns than Josh Allen. Allen has 41 rushing touchdowns in total over that stretch, an average of more than 13 per season. Allen has gone for more than 11.5 rushing touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. There is no reason to think that the Bills and Allen will slow down at all, so at +100, I would back Allen to hit that mark for a fourth straight season.
AFC East Bets FAQ
What are the best AFC East bets for the 2026 NFL season?
The featured AFC East bets include the Bills to win the division, Patriots to win the AFC, Dolphins under 4.5 wins, Garrett Wilson over 999.5 receiving yards and Josh Allen over 11.5 rushing touchdowns.
What are NFL betting splits?
Betting splits show the percentage of tickets (bets) and money (handle) placed on each side of a wager. Comparing the two can provide insight into whether a market is being driven primarily by public bettors or larger wagers.
How should betting splits be used?
Betting splits should be one factor among many when evaluating a wager. They can help identify popular sides or where larger amounts of money are being wagered, but they should be combined with matchup analysis, injuries and market movement before placing a bet.
When do NFL futures bets close?
Most NFL futures markets remain open until the affected team’s first regular-season game, although odds and availability can change throughout the preseason.
