The Brewers (67-40) thrashed the Giants (45-62) on Tuesday, earning an 8-2 victory. Now, Milwaukee will hope to boost its stranglehold over the NL Central by picking up a series win on the road. That may not be so easy this afternoon; San Francisco is sending out ace pitcher Logan Webb. Which of these two clubs will come out on top today at Oracle Park?
The Brewers are favorites (-130) over the Giants, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Milwaukee and San Francisco on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Giants pick, best bet today
- Brewers vs. Giants under 7.5 runs (-110): Webb has dominated Milwaukee over the past few seasons, setting him up for a bounce back performance on Wednesday. As for Drohan, he shouldn’t have too much difficulty against a Giants lineup missing several regulars.
Brewers vs. Giants prediction, preview
Milwaukee has become one of the league’s most consistent franchises over the past decade. That’s due in large part to the organization’s ability to churn out talented young pitchers. Shane Drohan is one of the latest Brewers hurlers to make an impact in the majors. Through 82.0 innings of work (11 starts), the 27-year-old has notched a 3.51 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 82 strikeouts (9.0 K/9). Despite a shaky start last week vs. the Rockies, it’s been a stellar month of July for the rookie. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five appearances. To boot, Drohan has done an exceptional job at preventing home runs (0.7 HR/9) and walks (2.5 BB/9).
Limiting homers and base on balls is crucial for any pitcher. That should pay dividends during Wednesday’s contest. The Giants aren’t pushovers at the plate, but they are averaging the fewest walks per game in baseball (2.55). To make matters worse, key hitters in Casey Schmitt (knee) and Matt Chapman (abdomen) are injured. San Francisco is putting up 3.92 runs per game at home, fifth-fewest in the league. As previously mentioned, Drohan rarely gives up home runs. The spacious dimensions of Oracle Park should only help in that regard this afternoon.
Still, the Giants have a shot at securing the win thanks to Webb. San Francisco’s ace has been his usual dependable self, earning a third career All-Star Game selection. Over 113.0 innings pitched (18 starts), the right-hander has recorded a 3.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 89 strikeouts (7.1 K/9). Granted, the workhorse has looked a bit off over the past few weeks. Webb has accounted for a lackluster 7.54 ERA during his previous four outings. That includes getting hit hard against middling Rockies, Blue Jays and Angels lineups. Still, the 29-year-old ranks within the 81st percentile in chase rate (34.2%), walk rate (6.3%), barrel rate (5.6%) and ground ball rate (52.7%).
Webb’s exceptional control could prove pivotal in this matchup The Brewers are a force at the plate, but it’s not due to their power. In fact, the club has only hit an MLB-worst 98 home runs this season. Instead, Milwaukee does most of its damage by working the count and making contact. The team is fourth in batting average (.255), third in on-base percentage (.337) and second in walks per game (4.10). However, as previously mentioned, Webb usually keeps traffic on the base paths at a minimum. It’s also worth mentioning that he’s allowed one run over his previous three meetings with the Brewers (0.47 ERA). That includes a seven-inning, scoreless gem back on June 3rd.
Best Bet: Brewers vs. Giants under 7.5 runs (-110)
Webb has been hit hard recently, but he tends to do well against Milwaukee. At home, I’m willing to bet that the veteran gets back on track. However, that alone isn’t enough to guarantee a Giants victory. San Francisco’s already mediocre lineup is without some key contributors at the moment. Keeping that in mind, offense should be at a premium this afternoon.
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