Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the night-half of Wednesday’s slate: Yordan Alvarez and Willson Contreras.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | +192 | The All-Star is two homers away from matching his own career-high (37), set in the distant past of 2022. It no wonder why, either. Alvarez sports a 100th percentile expected wOBA (.477) and a 100th percentile expected slugging rate (.718), thanks primarily to 99th percentile marks in barrel rate (18.8%) and average exit velocity (94.7). Meanwhile, lefties are slashing .389/.458/.656 off Grayson Rodriguez. |
| Willson Contreras | +234 | Jacob Lopez comes into tonight’s matchup with the Red Sox in possession of a ghastly 7.62 ERA at home. Lopez has also allowed the 216 RHBs he’s faced this season to combine for 1.80 home runs per nine with a .500 slugging percentage and a .383 wOBA. Contreras has 22 long balls and a 97th percentile expected wOBA (.387). I have a feeling No. 23 is on the way on Wednesday evening. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Yordan Alvarez 1+ Home Run (+192)
This might be the chalkiest home run pick I’ve ever made, but in my defense, unless you want to chase a Lucas Spence (+480) long ball this evening — which would be the first of his career — there’s no other left-handed bats in the Astros’ lineup to back. It’s Alvarez or it’s nothing. The All-Star is two homers away from matching his own career-high (37), set in the distant past of 2022. It no wonder why, either. Alvarez sports a 100th percentile expected wOBA (.477) and a 100th percentile expected slugging rate (.718), thanks primarily to 99th percentile marks in barrel rate (18.8%) and average exit velocity (94.7). He’s the perfect hitting machine. Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez can not retire LHBs to save his life. Lefties are slashing .389/.458/.656 off the former top prospect with a .462 wOBA. Geeze. Maybe even Spence deserves a sprinkle.
Willson Contreras 1+ Home Run (+234)
Like every pitcher on the planet, Jacob Lopez has not enjoyed pitching at Sutter Health Park. In fact, Lopez comes into tonight’s matchup with the Red Sox in possession of a ghastly 7.62 ERA at home. Lopez is also left-handed and he’s had the usual struggles you might expect against right-handed hitters. The 216 Lopez has faced this season have combined to smack 1.80 home runs per nine with a .500 slugging percentage and a .383 wOBA. Put all this together, and you’ve got quite the advantageous spot for Contreras, Boston’s most dangerous bat. The 34-year-old isn’t slowing down in 2026, as he’s translated 96th percentile bat speed (77.1) into 22 long balls and a 97th percentile expected wOBA (.387). I have a feeling No. 23 is on the way on Wednesday evening.
