Postseason contenders are set to clash this weekend in DC. The Diamondbacks (54-49) are catching fire, surging into sole possession of the National League’s final wild card spot. As for the Nationals (52-51), the next ten days will be of the utmost importance. Despite a miserable pitching staff, Washington’s elite offense has given fans reason for optimism. A win streak before the trade deadline could turn these potential sellers into buyers before August 3rd. Which club has the edge heading into tonight’s matchup?
The Diamondbacks are favorites (-126) over the Nationals, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Arizona and Washington on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals pick, best bet today
- Diamondbacks ML (-126): This one can be boiled down to Rodriguez being the superior pitcher compared to the unproven Palmquist. Coupled with a lineup that’s begun to find its stride, and its difficult to fade the Diamondbacks tonight.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals prediction, preview
After a middling start, the Diamondbacks have picked up some steam in recent weeks. The team has reeled off ten wins over their last 14 contests. They’ve done so despite good, not great, seasons from big bats Corbin Carroll (124 wRC+) and Ketel Marte (108 wRC+). Unlike in years past, Arizona has gotten solid production out of its starting rotation. That includes unexpected All-Star Eduardo Rodriguez. Through 116.2 innings of work, the 11th-year pro has notched a 2.62 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 82 strikeouts (6.3 K/9). Granted, E-Rod’s peripherals suggest he’s been fortunate. However, the veteran has managed to stave off negative regression all season. HIs tendency to induce weak contact could come in handy tonight against a powerful Nationals lineup.
Speaking of which, Washington has established itself as an elite offensive unit. The team is first in runs scored (567), first in home runs (150) and second in OPS (.771). Leading the charge is the dynamic duo of James Wood (155 wRC+) and CJ Abrams (143 wRC+). However, this lineup is more than just two All-Stars. Five different members of the active roster have a wRC+ above 100 (min. 100 plate appearances). Over their last ten games, the Nationals have scored the second-most runs in all of baseball (67).
First in the majors during that stretch? None other than the Diamondbacks with 73 runs. As previously mentioned, the Snakes have underwhelmed at the plate this season. However, the past few weeks have seen this group finally living up to their sky-high potential. Where Arizona has been at its best is against southpaws; this lineup has recorded a .781 OPS against left-handed pitching. That’s the third-best mark in the majors, behind only the Nationals and Cubs. The Diamondbacks, unlike Washington, don’t hit for power very often; they’re 28th in home runs (101). Instead, this group makes its mark with quality contact. Since July 1st, four different batters have put up an OPS of at least .700. Surprisingly, that hasn’t included Carroll and Marte. With that being said, those two both hit much better against lefties.
That bodes well for Arizona’s chances during tonight’s contest. As previously mentioned, the Nationals have been a mess on the mound. Toeing the slab tonight will be Carson Palmquist, making his eighth appearance (fourth start) of the season. Over 11.1 innings, he’s on the hook for a ghastly 8.74 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 14 strikeouts (11.1 K/9). It’s a small sample size, but not very reassuring for Nats fans. Throughout his two-year career, the former Rockies hurler has an eye-popping 8.87 ERA. While better days are likely ahead by default, Palmquist doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into this matchup. Even if the lefty gets an early hook, Washington owns the sport’s third-highest bullpen ERA (5.09).
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-126)
Both of these red-hot lineups specialize in hitting left-handed pitching. However, not all southpaws are on even ground. Rodriguez, even with his mediocre peripherals, is a far more dependable arm compared to Palmquist. That, combined with Arizona’s success this month and a dismal Washington bullpen, has me backing the visitors tonight.
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