A dormant Yankees (56-44) offense finally woke up on Monday, earning an 8-5 victory over the Pirates (52-49). Pittsburgh, still in contention for a wild card spot, is hoping to prove itself against a World Series contender. New York, still trailing the Rays in the AL East, needs every win it can get going forward. Fortunately for the Pinstripes, ace Max Fried will make his much-anticipated return to the mound tonight. Which side has the edge going into the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader?
The Yankees are favorites (-168) over the Pirates, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s interleague showdown between Pittsburgh and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Yankees pick, best bet today
- Yankees -1.5 (+120): Fried, even off of a lengthy absence, poses problems for Pittsburgh’s hitters. As for Chandler, his propensity for handing out walks isn’t ideal against a disciplined Yankees lineup. New York has the advantage on paper heading into tonight’s contest.
Pirates vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Bubba Chandler will get things started for Pittsburgh, making his 19th start of the season. The highly touted prospect isn’t lacking talent, but consistency has been a major issue. Going into this matchup, he’s notched a 4.77 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 85 strikeouts (8.1 K/9) over 94.1 innings. Most troubling, the right-hander has surrendered an MLB-worst 55 walks (5.2 BB/9). That lack of control is almost impossible to overcome, especially when the rest of your peripherals are middling at best. Chandler sits inside the bottom 40th percentile in chase rate (29.2%), whiff rate (23.1%), strikeout rate (20.2%) and ground ball rate (38.9%).
None of those numbers should give Pirates fans much optimism, especially going into Wednesday’s contest. The Yankees haven’t been very effective at the plate in the absence of Aaron Judge (ribs). However, last night’s eight-run output could be the spark this club needs going forward. That offensive effort was headlined by Jazz Chisholm Jr., who clubbed two home runs to right field. The second baseman is joined by fellow impact bats Ben Rice (164 wRC+) and Cody Bellinger (115 wRC+). Most concerning for Chandler, New York averages the fifth-most walks per game in baseball (3.75). That, combined with an American League-leading 146 homers, could spell trouble.
As for New York, it’ll be Fried making his 11th start of the season. The three-time All-Star missed over two months due to a bone bruise suffered in May. Prior to his absence, the veteran recorded a 3.21 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 50 strikeouts (7.3 K/9) over 61.2 innings of work. A quick look at the lefty’s Savant page is impressive, to say the least. Fried is within the top 93rd percentile in xERA (2.63), average exit velocity (86.1 MPH), barrel rate (1.8%) and hard-hit rate (30.8%). It’s worth noting that the Yankees will likely keep the southpaw on a strict pitch count. Regardless, New York wields the sport’s second-best bullpen ERA (3.09).
Navigating a Pirates offense that ranks second in runs per game (5.33) won’t be an easy task. Seven different hitters on Pittsburgh’s active roster have a wRC+ of at least 100 this season. That includes Esmerlyn Valdez, who hit his 13th homer in 32 games last night vs. New York. However, the team is missing a few notable bats. Key contributors Oneil Cruz (hand), Konnor Griffin (finger), Endy Rodriguez (hip) and Spencer Horowitz (hamstring) are all dealing with injuries right now. If this Buccos lineup has any weakness, it’s swinging and missing. The Pirates have struck out 9.47 times per game, worst in the National League. Pittsburgh has recorded baseball’s fourth-lowest OPS on the road against left-handed pitching (.634).
Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+120)
New York has been a bit uneven in recent weeks. With that being said, their patient approach on offense lines up nicely against an erratic arm such as Chandler. As for the Pirates, they wield a more depleted group of hitters. Although Pittsburgh can still mash, a talented left-hander such as Fried could be their kryptonite.
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