Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the night-half of Wednesday’s 17-game slate: Shohei Ohtani and Manny Machado.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | +214 | Ohtani isn’t having an otherworldly offensive campaign like he’s had in seasons past, but he still has managed 22 home runs and a 149 wRC+ in his 428 PAs. He’s also in possession of 98th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.408) and expected slugging (.568). Meanwhile, in Aaron Nola’s last seven outings, the veteran RHP has conceded a whopping 2.92 long balls per nine. |
| Manny Machado | +382 | After a pair of home runs on Tuesday, Manny Machado now has three long balls in the first two games of the Padres’ series against the Braves. Let’s go for a fourth. Machado is red-hot in July, slashing .281/.391/.614 with a .333 ISO and a 171 wRC+. Now he’ll get to face the soft-tossing Martin Perez, who has struggled to a 7.43 ERA with an 8.13 FIP in his last three outings. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Shohei Ohtani 1+ Home Run (+214)
I feel like I very rarely write up Shohei Ohtani in this article, as it sort of feels like cheating. However, with odds longer than 2/1, I’ll gladly back the reigning NL MVP to go deep on Wednesday night. Ohtani isn’t having an otherworldly offensive campaign like he’s had in seasons past, but he still has managed 22 home runs and a 149 wRC+ in his 428 plate appearances. He’s also in possession of 98th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.408) and expected slugging (.568). Remember, he’s the undisputed best player on the planet for a reason. Then there’s the presence of Aaron Nola, who has been getting shelled by opponents for the better part of two years now. Specific to Nola’s last seven outings, the veteran RHP has conceded a whopping 2.92 long balls per nine. Woof.
Manny Machado 1+ Home Run (+382)
After a pair of home runs on Tuesday, Manny Machado now has three long balls in the first two games of the Padres’ series against the Braves. Let’s go for a fourth on Wednesday, shall we? It hasn’t always been pretty for the veteran infielder in 2026, but Machado has turned his campaign around in July, slashing .281/.391/.614 with a .333 ISO and a 171 wRC+. Now he’ll get to face the soft-tossing Martin Perez, who will be coming off the IL to toe the rubber for Atlanta. In Perez’s three starts prior to his injury, the 35-year-old struggled to a 7.43 ERA with an 8.13 FIP. It was a span where Perez also surrendered four homers in only 13.1 innings of action. The cherry on top? In 21 career at-bats against Perez, Machado has managed a 1.005 OPS. Needless to say, the former All-Star is in a very nice spot this evening.
