Entering the season, it was the Mets (43-59) that were generating World Series hype. However, just days away from August 3rd, New York is looking to sell at the trade deadline. It’s the Brewers (63-38), owners of baseball’s second-best record, that are giving their fans something to cheer about. Milwaukee will look to boost its standing in the top-heavy National League with another victory this afternoon.
The Brewers are favorites (-141) over the Mets, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between New York and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Brewers pick, best bet today
- Brewers -1.5 (+149): Henderson has been electric, and now he’ll get to face one of baseball’s worst lineups in New York. On the other side, Scott’s tendency to hand out walks could haunt him against a disciplined Brewers lineup. Milwaukee has the edge on the mound and at the plate in this one.
Mets vs. Brewers prediction, preview
To say things have gone sideways for New York is putting it lightly. That includes issues on the mound, especially from staff ace Freddy Peralta. One name that’s done his job this season is Christian Scott. The 27-year-old isn’t much of an innings eater, but he’s been a stabilizing force in this Mets rotation. Over 13 starts (59.2 IP), he’s accounted for a 2.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 72 strikeouts (10.9 K/9). Over his previous two outings, the right-hander has yet to allow an earned run. That includes an impressive 5.2 inning performance in Philadelphia. Scott sits within the 79th percentile or better in strikeout rate (28.5%) and hard-hit rate (34.0%).
Wednesday’s contest presents a significant challenge for New York’s hurler. The Brewers are an offensive juggernaut, albeit an unorthodox one. The club has only hit 94 home runs, fewest in all of baseball. However, they rank fifth in runs scored (510), sixth in batting average (.252) and fourth in on-base percentage (.336). In addition, Milwaukee is working the league’s second-most walks per game (4.16). That’s especially bad news for Scott, who has had some issues with his command (3.9 BB/9). This lineup is one of the sport’s deepest; five players with 200+ plate appearances have a wRC+ above 100.
As for the home team, it’ll be Logan Henderson toeing the slab on Wednesday. The rookie, when healthy, has been a force on the mound. Through 33.1 innings of work (seven starts), he’s accounted for a 2.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 38 strikeouts (10.3 K/9). It’s a small sample size, but the 24-year-old’s production appears to be legit. He sits inside the 89th percentile in xERA (2.91), strikeout rate (29.7%) and walk rate (5.5%). Don’t expect a lengthy outing from the youngster; he’s gone past the fifth inning on just two occasions this season. Still, that’s not a big issue with baseball’s fifth-best bullpen ERA (3.55).
Hitting has been a perpetual struggle this season in Queens. The Mets are 27th in runs per game (4.08) and 29th in OPS (.686). Other than Juan Soto (157 wRC+), there haven’t been many standouts on this roster. The team has scored 35 runs over its last ten contests, tied for fourth-worst in baseball during that stretch. Even during Tuesday’s win, New York only managed to scrape together four runs. During a matinee game on short rest, offense could be even harder to come by.
Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 (+149)
With respect to Scott, Henderson is the superior arm in this matchup. There’s no debate that Milwaukee’s assembly line offense presents more of a threat than the Mets. A contact-heavy, patient approach at the plate could wear out New York’s starter as well. Coming off of a disappointing loss, expect the Brewers to clinch a series victory this afternoon.
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