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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Game 1 prediction, pick for Wednesday 7/22/26

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Game 1 prediction, pick for Wednesday 7/22/26

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By: Garion Thorne

It was a very rainy day in Boston on Tuesday, and that means the Red Sox and the Orioles — two of the hottest teams in MLB — will play a doubleheader on Wednesday. Game 1 set to go at 1:35 p.m. ET.

Let’s preview the first leg of this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Orioles vs. Red Sox prediction, preview

What is even left to be said about the Red Sox? Once considered sure sellers at the upcoming deadline, the club has ripped off 14 straight wins coming into today’s doubleheader. They literally have not lost since all the way back on July 1, when the Nationals took them down by a score of 10-2.

If you’d like to know how a team wins 14 contests in a row, it all starts with pitching. Boston’s rotation was the lone bright spot of a “lost” season during April, May and June, but now its leading the charge to its playoff push. In July, the Red Sox sport MLB’s lowest ERA (2.51), its lowest xERA (3.09) and its lowest FIP (3.35). Rookie Jake Bennett has been a massive element of this success. In his nine career starts at the MLB level, the left-hander owns a 2.35 ERA and a 2.99 xERA across 53.2 innings of work. Bennett isn’t a huge strikeout guy, yet he is elite at generating poor contact on “pitchers’ pitches” outside the zone. In fact, Bennett’s 37.3% chase rate ranks in the 96th percentile of the league. Add in a 98th percentile walk rate (4.4%) and it’s not difficult to see why the 25-year-old southpaw has been thriving.

Ironically, the Orioles own baseball’s second-lowest ERA in the month of July (2.86), as Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Shane Baz have all suddenly found their form. Not included on that list? Dean Kremer, who will toe the rubber in Game 1 on Wednesday afternoon. Kremer has only made five starts with Baltimore in 2026, and while a 28.2% strikeout rate and a 4.1 K/BB ratio are very nice, a 6.18 FIP looms larger over the proceedings. Kremer simply has not been able to keep the ball in the park. Surely a 30.0% HR/FB ratio will normalize, but at the moment, the RHP has surrendered nine home runs in just 26.0 innings. That includes four long balls to the Astros in his final start before the All-Star break. Woof.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Red Sox can take advantage of that flaw. Obviously, Boston has been swinging the bats better of late, yet for the season as a whole, it is the only American League team with fewer than 100 home runs. The Red Sox’s .149 ISO also sits 24th in MLB.

Orioles vs. Red Sox pick, best bet

Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-110)

Both of these teams have been pitching so well lately that it’s easy to side with the under in Game 1. Dean Kremer’s new-found strikeout ability should eventually lead to better results, while Jake Bennett owns a 0.82 ERA over his last five starts.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.