Two seasons ago, the Chicago White Sox had one of the worst records in modern MLB history, finishing just 41-121, the second-lowest winning percentage of any team since 1960. Last season, Chicago made significant progress, losing just 102 games. This season, the White Sox are playoff contenders.
While four of the six divisions are led by teams that have been regular playoff participants in recent seasons, Chicago leads the AL Central and the Texas Rangers lead the AL West. The Rangers’ 2023 World Series title came in their only playoff appearance since 2016.
Given how tight each team’s division race is, it’s somewhat fitting that these two teams have split the first two games of their series, so tonight’s 8:05 p.m. ET meeting will be the rubber match. The White Sox will turn to Anthony Kay, and Tyler Alexander will open ahead of Cal Quantrill for Texas.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers Best Bets
- Texas Rangers (-110): I trust the combination of Alexander and Quantrill more than I do Kay, who advanced stats suggest has been one of baseball’s worst starters this season. Plus, Chicago’s strong record is mostly buoyed by its home form.
- NRFI (-125): Alexander hasn’t given up a first-inning run in any of his three appearances as an opener, and he’s emerged without damage from more than 75% of his appearances. That puts all the pressure on Kay, but he has produced a clean first inning more often than not.
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers prediction, preview
Chicago started 6-13, and few people batted an eye, given that the White Sox were never expected to be contenders. Since then, though, Chicago has gone 47-34, jostling with the Cleveland Guardians for the division lead for much of the season, and per FanGraphs, it has a 39.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 22.2% chance to win the division. The White Sox rank 13th in OPS this season thanks to a bevy of young offensive stars, as Miguel Vargas emerged from relative obscurity to rank ninth in the AL in slugging percentage and rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami is back in the lineup after missing nearly six weeks with a hamstring strain. Additionally, Chicago has had baseball’s 11th-best pitching staff, as Sean Burke and Davis Martin have emerged as a solid starter duo and Sean Newcombe, Grant Taylor, and Bryan Hudson have been reliable setup men. Even the White Sox’s run differential suggests they should be even better than they’ve been; there’s nothing fluky about this run.
The Rangers’ season has been more consistent than Chicago’s, as they’ve never been more than three games behind the division lead and have had at least a 20% chance to make the playoffs for most of the season. Like the White Sox, Texas had one of the worst lineups in the league last season, but it’s rebounded to 15th in OPS so far in 2026, with players like Josh Jung, Wyatt Langford, and Ezequiel Durán enjoying among the best offensive seasons of their careers. The Rangers’ rotation has taken a step back, though; while they had the best starters in baseball last season, they’ve dropped back to 18th so far, as Jacob deGrom is finally starting to show signs of his age, and the back end of their rotation hasn’t been as sharp. Additionally, Texas lacks bullpen depth, as Jacob Latz, Alexander, and Jakob Junis have been let down by deeper relief options.
Kay has been pretty sharp in his first season back in MLB after a two-year stint in Japan, pitching to a 4.24 ERA overall and conceding two or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 20 appearances. Since the start of May, he’s been particularly good, recording a 3.56 mark across 14 outings. However, advanced numbers don’t paint as positive a picture, as he ranks in just the 12th percentile in expected ERA, the 17th percentile in expected batting average, and the 16th percentile in pitching run value. To be fair, his potential as there, as his Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ metrics are all north of 100, but he ranks in the bottom third in both whiff rate and strikeout rate. That could help nullify one of the Rangers’ weaknesses, as they’ve whiffed at an above-median rate. Additionally, Kay has only been okay at avoiding hard hits, and Texas ranks a solid 12th in hard-hit percentage. To make matters worse, the splits aren’t in Kay’s favor, as he has been far worse on the road, and the Rangers have been better both at home and against lefties. Kay’s luck probably isn’t sustainable, given that the White Sox have been among a below-average fielding team.
Overall, Texas has the slightly better pitching plan for tonight’s game. Alexander has opened thrice this season, not giving up a run in any of them, and while he’s given up three runs in his last 1.1 innings to see his ERA balloon from 2.21 to 2.79, 35 of his 44 outings have been clean. I’d expect him to pitch a clean inning before handing it over to Quantrill, who made three solid starts before getting laced for six runs on 11 hits in four innings in his last outing. Advanced stats slightly prefer Quantrill to Kay, as he ranks in the 23rd percentile in expected ERA. Although Quantrill hasn’t produced many whiffs or strikeouts, mitigating arguably Chicago’s biggest weakness, he ranks in the top third in both hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity, which should especially help against Murakami. Additionally, while Quantrill has struggled to induce grounders, the White Sox hit grounders at a high rate. Chicago’s offense has also been less effective on the road, so Alexander and Quantrill have more margin for error.
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Texas Rangers Moneyline (-110)
This is a pure toss-up, as both teams are -110 on the Moneyline, but the Rangers are just a little better-suited to get to Kay than the White Sox are to get to either Alexander or Quantrill. Additionally, Chicago has gone just 22-30 on the road.
Strong Lean: NRFI (-125)
With Alexander scheduled to take the mound in the first inning, it’s far more likely than not that the White Sox won’t plate any runs in the opening frame. Kay has only given up a run in the first inning in seven of his 18 starts.
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