The Diamondbacks (52-49) are a dark horse contender, tied with Pittsburgh for the National League’s final wild card spot. Arizona comes into Wednesday on a tear, having won seven of its previous nine games. The same can’t be said for the Athletics (43-58), who are losing pace in the AL West. Still, their loaded lineup has enough firepower to pull off an upset this afternoon.
The Diamondbacks are favorites (-131) over the Athletics, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between the A’s and Arizona on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Athletics vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet today
- Athletics vs. Diamondbacks over 8.5 runs (-122): Kelly has been a mess, and an Athletics lineup with several standouts should do some damage. While Jump is better on the road, the Diamondbacks specialize in hitting against southpaws. Add it all up, and you have a recipe for plenty of runs this afternoon.
Athletics vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Unsurprisingly, quality pitching has been difficult to come by for the Athletics. Playing half of all games at Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, a hitter’s haven, has had a detrimental effect on the mound. In terms of raw stuff, Gage Jump might be the most talented member of this rotation. Through ten starts (52.1 IP), the rookie has notched a 3.78 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 56 strikeouts (9.6 K/9). Those numbers are in line with the southpaw’s advanced metrics. The 23-year-old ranks within the 70th percentile in fastball velocity (96.3 MPH), chase rate (32.9%), strikeout rate (25.3%) and barrel rate (5.5%). To boot, Jump has a minuscule 0.75 ERA during four outings on the road.
Wednesday’s matchup will be a battle of strength vs. strength. As previously mentioned, Jump is a far more dangerous pitcher outside of Sacramento. However, there’s good reason to believe the Diamondbacks could find success against the youngster tonight. The team has a .765 OPS against left-handed pitching, fourth-best in the majors. In addition, the Snakes are starting to heat up at the plate. They’ve scored 55 runs over their previous ten contests, fifth-most in baseball during that time. Look for star second baseman Ketel Marte to get going in this one. Against left-handed pitching this season, he’s posted a .937 OPS with eight home runs and 21 RBIs.
Arizona will counter Jump with a polar opposite: crafty veteran Merrill Kelly. The 37-year-old hasn’t been himself so far, struggling to generate any kind of consistency. Through 98.2 innings pitched (17 starts), he’s produced a 5.20 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 62 strikeouts (5.7 K/9). A quick look at the numbers suggests that he’s actually gotten lucky this season. A 7.55 xERA, .308 xBA, and 13.8% barrel rate all sit within the bottom percentile among qualified starters. Surprisingly, Kelly has been even worse at home (6.69 ERA) than he has on the road (4.28 ERA).
A struggling arm doesn’t inspire much confidence against most clubs, let alone an above-average lineup. The Athletics are 15th in runs scored (453), 11th in home runs (126) and 12th in OPS (.731). Granted, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz (thumb) remains on the injured list. Still, four different regulars on the team’s active roster have a wRC+ of at least 100. Kelly throws a four-seam fastball, changeup or cutter on over two-thirds of his pitches. Against those three offerings, Athletics batters are slashing .247/.334/.421 at the plate this season.
Best Bet: Athletics vs. Diamondbacks over 8.5 runs (-122)
The Diamondbacks are among the league’s best when it comes to hitting left-handed pitching. That sets the Snakes up nicely against an unproven southpaw such as Jump. On the other side, Kelly has been among the worst pitchers in baseball this season. A decent A’s lineup should find a way to make an impact this afternoon.
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