Shortly past the halfway point of the MLB regular season, four of the MLB’s six divisions are very much up in the air. In only one division (the NL West) does the leader currently have more than a seven-game lead.
The closest of all divisions is the AL West, where the Texas Rangers trail the Seattle Mariners by just 0.5 games. Tonight, Texas could move back into the division lead for the first time since April 8, if it claims the middle game of a series against the bottom-feeding Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners lose to the red-hot Miami Marlins. Tonight’s game between the Angels and the Rangers begins at 8:05 p.m. in Arlington.
Los Angeles will start Walbert Ureña, and Texas will counter with MacKenzie Gore.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Angels at Rangers Best Bets
- Los Angeles Angels 1st 5 Innings (+114): MacKenzie Gore has pitched to a near-5 ERA since the start of June, and Walbert Ureña has allowed one or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 16 starts. I think Ureña will exit the game with a lead; it just depends on whether the Angels’ bullpen can hold it.
- MacKenzie Gore O4.5 Hits Allowed (-118): This would be a fairly high bar for any pitcher to clear, much less Gore, who has allowed at least five hits in four of his last six starts. Los Angeles’ offense obviously isn’t good, but it’s been better on the road.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers prediction, preview
The Angels haven’t had a winning season since 2015, which looks highly unlikely to change this season. Los Angeles has the worst record in baseball at 36-56, and it’s suffered seven consecutive defeats, including six by multiple runs. The Angels’ offense has been an issue, as it’s posted the eighth-lowest OPS in baseball; despite Mike Trout’s being named an All-Star starter for the 11th time, Los Angeles hasn’t gotten much production besides him. Only four Angels with at least 100 plate appearances have registered an OPS+ north of 100, and one of those four, shortstop Zach Neto, leads the league in strikeouts. Similarly, Los Angeles’ pitching has been disastrous; both its starters and relievers rank sixth-to-last in ERA this season. José Soriano and Ureña have had their moments, but no pitcher with more than 20 innings pitched has an ERA below 3, meaning the Angels’ hurlers range from average to bad.
On the other hand, the Rangers have been hot, winning eight of their last 11 games to climb back over .500. For the season as a whole, Texas has had a slightly-above-average offense, ranking 13th in OPS. The Rangers don’t have any standout offensive talents — no player has produced more than 2.0 offensive WAR so far — but eight different players have been worth at least 1.0 WAR and eight have had at least 100 plate appearances and an above-median OPS+. Plus, offensive mediocrity is all that Texas requires, given its pitching staff, which ranks among the league’s top 11 in both rotation and bullpen ERA. The Rangers’ top four of Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Gore, and Kumar Rocker have all been solid if unspectacular, and closer Jacob Latz has been among baseball’s best.
Ureña, a 22-year-old rookie, has been the team’s best pitcher overall despite his compatriot Soriano’s garnering some Cy Young Award buzz at the start of the season. While he finally had his welcome-to-the-MLB moment, giving up seven runs in a loss to the Athletics on June 26, he’s still given up one or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 16 appearances. In his prior start against Texas, he gave up one run across five innings, walking three and striking out six. All in all, advanced numbers are also quite kind to the Dominican; he ranks in the league’s top decile in expected batting average, fastball velocity, and ground ball rate, so his ability to keep the ball down should exacerbate the Rangers’ struggles to get it up. Additionally, Texas isn’t well-suited overall to take advantage of his only major weakness; while his 13th-percentile walk rate could be problematic, the Rangers rank 11th-to-last in walks this season. Ureña will also benefit from friendly splits, as he’s been somewhat better on the road and Texas has been worse both at home and against right-handed pitchers.
Ureña could have the slight advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Gore, who’s basically replicated his NL production in his first season on the junior circuit. Gore has pitched to a 4.31 ERA in his 18 starts, including a 4.93 mark since the start of June, but at least he’s had some highs, giving up two or fewer earned runs in nine of his starts. Advanced numbers suggest that he’s still an above-average starter, as he ranks in the 59th percentile in expected ERA, and he still has a few above-average metrics, such as his 71st-percentile strikeout rate. Like Ureña, he has struggled with walks, but Los Angeles has drawn even fewer free passes than the Rangers have. Gore also ranks in the bottom tertile in hard-hit rate, ground ball rate, and average exit velocity, but the Angels rank near or below the median in each of those categories, so they aren’t well-suited to take advantage of his weaknesses. The splits are mixed; Gore has been significantly better at home this season, and Los Angeles’ offense has been much more effective on the road. He could keep it close and give his bullpen a chance to close it out.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels 1st 5 Innings (+114)
I trust Ureña more than Gore, especially given Gore’s poor recent form, and it’s not like Texas’ offense is particularly hot despite the Rangers’ recent winning stretch.
Strong Lean: MacKenzie Gore O4.5 Hits Allowed (-118)
Gore has given up at least five hits in four of his last six starts, and while the Angels have basically hit the Mendoza Line over the past week, they’ve posted an above-median batting average on the road for the season.
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